33 vs 22
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- 33 Win
- 78.0%
- Tie
- 5.0%
- 33 Lose
- 17.1%
- Card combinations
- 36
- 33 vs random
- 53.7% · #67
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
Win, tie and loss for 33
When 33 and 22 get all in before the flop, 33 wins 80.5% of the time and 22 takes 19.6%. Broken down, 33 wins outright 78.0%, chops 5.0% and loses 17.1% — a margin of 60.9 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 79.8% (for example 3s 3h against 2d 2c); with both suits shared it is 81.0% (3s 3h against 2s 2h). That is a spread of 1.29 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 33 42.6%, 22 16.4%, random 41.1%. 33 gives up 37.9 points and 22 gives up 3.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 33 is worth 53.7% against a random hand (rank 67 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 3.5 points, yet head to head the gap is 60.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 33 scoops roughly 78 pots, splits about 5, and loses the remaining 17. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 33 would be down to 12.8% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 22's side, 19.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.13:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 19.5% of the pot you are playing for. 33 holds the other 80.5% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 33's 80.5% moves. Use the individual pages for 33 and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 33 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 3s 3h vs 2d 2c | 6 | 79.8% | 77.3% | 4.9% | 17.8% |
| One shared suit | 3s 3h vs 2s 2d | 24 | 80.5% | 78.0% | 5.0% | 17.1% |
| Both suits shared | 3s 3h vs 2s 2h | 6 | 81.0% | 78.5% | 5.0% | 16.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 33 is ahead 88.8% of the time and 22 11.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 33 leads on the flop, 22 comes back on the turn and river 8.33% of the time. When 22 leads on the flop, 33 turns it around 13.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 86.1% of the time from the flop and 89.7% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 33 leads 85.7% and 22 14.3%. Counted exhaustively, 33 finishes with 80.43% equity (the 80.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 33 wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 ahead | 88.8% | 86.1% | 5.58% | 8.33% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 11.2% | 13.3% | 0.207% | 86.5% |
| After the turn | How often | 33 wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 ahead | 85.7% | 89.5% | 5.72% | 4.78% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 14.3% | 8.49% | 0.521% | 91.0% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 33 | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53.7% | 50.2% |
| 2 | 33.1% | 30.2% |
| 4 | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| 8 | 12.8% | 12.5% |
Related
FAQ
33 or 22 — which is ahead preflop?
33 is the favourite. 33 takes 80.5% and 22 19.6%, a margin of 60.9 points, with 5.0% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 33 vs 22?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 79.8%, and with both suits shared it is 81.0% — a swing of up to 1.29 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 33 42.6%, 22 16.4%, random 41.1%. 33 drops 37.9 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 33 vs 22?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 8.88% of the time (level spots left out). When 33 leads, 22 comes back 8.33%. When 22 leads, 33 comes back 13.3%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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