44 vs 33
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- 44 Win
- 79.2%
- Tie
- 3.7%
- 44 Lose
- 17.2%
- Card combinations
- 36
- 44 vs random
- 57.0% · #48
- 33 vs random
- 53.7% · #67
Win, tie and loss for 44
When 44 and 33 get all in before the flop, 44 wins 81.0% of the time and 33 takes 19.0%. Broken down, 44 wins outright 79.2%, chops 3.7% and loses 17.2% — a margin of 62 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 80.3% (for example 4s 4h against 3d 3c); with both suits shared it is 81.7% (4s 4h against 3s 3h). That is a spread of 1.39 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 44 45.4%, 33 16.4%, random 38.3%. 44 gives up 35.6 points and 33 gives up 2.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 44 is worth 57.0% against a random hand (rank 48 of 169) and 33 is worth 53.7% (rank 67). The gap between them in the ranking is only 3.3 points, yet head to head the gap is 62 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 44 scoops roughly 79 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 17. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 44 would be down to 13.1% and 33 to 12.8%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 33's side, 19.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.26:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 19.0% of the pot you are playing for. 44 holds the other 81.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 33 really does hold exactly 33; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 44's 81.0% moves. Use the individual pages for 44 and 33 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 44 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 4s 4h vs 3d 3c | 6 | 80.3% | 78.4% | 3.7% | 17.9% |
| One shared suit | 4s 4h vs 3s 3d | 24 | 81.0% | 79.2% | 3.6% | 17.2% |
| Both suits shared | 4s 4h vs 3s 3h | 6 | 81.7% | 79.7% | 3.9% | 16.4% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 44 | 33 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57.0% | 53.7% |
| 2 | 37.0% | 33.1% |
| 4 | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| 8 | 13.1% | 12.8% |
Related
FAQ
44 or 33 — which is ahead preflop?
44 is the favourite. 44 takes 81.0% and 33 19.0%, a margin of 62 points, with 3.7% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 44 vs 33?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 80.3%, and with both suits shared it is 81.7% — a swing of up to 1.39 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 44 45.4%, 33 16.4%, random 38.3%. 44 drops 35.6 points compared with heads-up.
429 words / 34 distinct figures — Method