88 vs 44
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- 88 Win
- 80.7%
- Tie
- 1.0%
- 88 Lose
- 18.3%
- Card combinations
- 36
- 88 vs random
- 69.2% · #7
- 44 vs random
- 57.0% · #48
Win, tie and loss for 88
When 88 and 44 get all in before the flop, 88 wins 81.2% of the time and 44 takes 18.8%. Broken down, 88 wins outright 80.7%, chops 1.0% and loses 18.3% — a margin of 62.4 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 80.6% (for example 8s 8h against 4d 4c); with both suits shared it is 81.7% (8s 8h against 4s 4h). That is a spread of 1.11 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 88 56.4%, 44 17.3%, random 26.4%. 88 gives up 24.8 points and 44 gives up 1.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 88 is worth 69.2% against a random hand (rank 7 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 12.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 62.4 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 88 scoops roughly 81 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 88 would be down to 15.9% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 44's side, 18.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.32:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 18.8% of the pot you are playing for. 88 holds the other 81.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 88's 81.2% moves. Use the individual pages for 88 and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 88 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 8s 8h vs 4d 4c | 6 | 80.6% | 80.1% | 0.9% | 18.9% |
| One shared suit | 8s 8h vs 4s 4d | 24 | 81.2% | 80.7% | 1.0% | 18.3% |
| Both suits shared | 8s 8h vs 4s 4h | 6 | 81.7% | 81.1% | 1.1% | 17.7% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 88 is ahead 88.8% of the time and 44 11.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 88 leads on the flop, 44 comes back on the turn and river 9.70% of the time. When 44 leads on the flop, 88 turns it around 12.5% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 89.0% of the time from the flop and 92.9% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 88 leads 85.3% and 44 14.7%. Counted exhaustively, 88 finishes with 81.14% equity (the 81.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 88 wins | Tie | 44 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 ahead | 88.8% | 89.2% | 1.06% | 9.70% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 44 ahead | 11.2% | 12.5% | 0.477% | 87.0% |
| After the turn | How often | 88 wins | Tie | 44 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 ahead | 85.3% | 93.2% | 1.05% | 5.80% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 44 ahead | 14.7% | 7.88% | 0.671% | 91.4% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 88 | 44 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69.2% | 57.0% |
| 2 | 50.2% | 37.0% |
| 4 | 29.2% | 20.7% |
| 8 | 15.9% | 13.1% |
Related
FAQ
88 or 44 — which is ahead preflop?
88 is the favourite. 88 takes 81.2% and 44 18.8%, a margin of 62.4 points, with 1.0% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 88 vs 44?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 80.6%, and with both suits shared it is 81.7% — a swing of up to 1.11 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 88 56.4%, 44 17.3%, random 26.4%. 88 drops 24.8 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 88 vs 44?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 10.0% of the time (level spots left out). When 88 leads, 44 comes back 9.70%. When 44 leads, 88 comes back 12.5%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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