88 vs T9s
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 88 Win
- 50.9%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- 88 Lose
- 48.5%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 88 vs random
- 69.2% · #7
- T9s vs random
- 54.0% · #65
Win, tie and loss for 88
When 88 and T9s get all in before the flop, 88 wins 51.2% of the time and T9s takes 48.8%. Broken down, 88 wins outright 50.9%, chops 0.5% and loses 48.5% — a margin of 2.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 51.0% (for example 8s 8h against Td 9d); with one shared suit it is 51.3% (8s 8h against Ts 9s). That is a spread of 0.27 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 88 39.1%, T9s 37.6%, random 23.3%. 88 gives up 12.1 points and T9s gives up 11.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 88 is worth 69.2% against a random hand (rank 7 of 169) and T9s is worth 54.0% (rank 65). The gap between them in the ranking is only 15.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 88 scoops roughly 51 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 49. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 88 would be down to 15.9% and T9s to 16.3%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From T9s's side, 48.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.05:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 48.8% of the pot you are playing for. 88 holds the other 51.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes T9s really does hold exactly T9s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 88's 51.2% moves. Use the individual pages for 88 and T9s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 88 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 8s 8h vs Td 9d | 12 | 51.0% | 50.8% | 0.5% | 48.7% |
| One shared suit | 8s 8h vs Ts 9s | 12 | 51.3% | 51.0% | 0.6% | 48.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 88 is ahead 67.6% of the time and T9s 32.4%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 88 leads on the flop, T9s comes back on the turn and river 30.2% of the time. When T9s leads on the flop, 88 turns it around 12.5% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 75.0% of the time from the flop and 85.6% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 88 leads 58.4% and T9s 41.6%. Counted exhaustively, 88 finishes with 51.12% equity (the 51.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 88 wins | Tie | T9s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 ahead | 67.6% | 69.2% | 0.531% | 30.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| T9s ahead | 32.4% | 12.5% | 0.480% | 87.0% |
| After the turn | How often | 88 wins | Tie | T9s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 ahead | 58.4% | 81.4% | 0.526% | 18.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| T9s ahead | 41.6% | 7.98% | 0.498% | 91.5% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 88 | T9s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69.2% | 54.0% |
| 2 | 50.2% | 38.9% |
| 4 | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| 8 | 15.9% | 16.3% |
Related
FAQ
88 or T9s — which is ahead preflop?
88 is the favourite. 88 takes 51.2% and T9s 48.8%, a margin of 2.4 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 88 vs T9s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 51.0%, and with one shared suit it is 51.3% — a swing of up to 0.27 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 88 39.1%, T9s 37.6%, random 23.3%. 88 drops 12.1 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 88 vs T9s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 24.5% of the time (level spots left out). When 88 leads, T9s comes back 30.2%. When T9s leads, 88 comes back 12.5%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 31 distinct figures — Method