AA vs 22
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- AA Win
- 81.9%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AA Lose
- 17.6%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and 22 get all in before the flop, AA wins 82.1% of the time and 22 takes 17.9%. Broken down, AA wins outright 81.9%, chops 0.5% and loses 17.6% — a margin of 64.3 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 81.4% (for example As Ah against 2d 2c); with both suits shared it is 82.9% (As Ah against 2s 2h). That is a spread of 1.49 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 69.9%, 22 16.3%, random 13.8%. AA gives up 12.3 points and 22 gives up 1.5, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 35 points, yet head to head the gap is 64.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 82 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 22's side, 17.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.59:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 17.9% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 82.1% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 82.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs 2d 2c | 6 | 81.4% | 81.2% | 0.5% | 18.3% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs 2s 2d | 24 | 82.1% | 81.9% | 0.5% | 17.6% |
| Both suits shared | As Ah vs 2s 2h | 6 | 82.9% | 82.6% | 0.6% | 16.8% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 50.2% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 30.2% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 17.8% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 12.5% |
Related
FAQ
AA or 22 — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 82.1% and 22 17.9%, a margin of 64.3 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs 22?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 81.4%, and with both suits shared it is 82.9% — a swing of up to 1.49 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 69.9%, 22 16.3%, random 13.8%. AA drops 12.3 points compared with heads-up.
429 words / 31 distinct figures — Method