AA vs KK
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- AA Win
- 81.8%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AA Lose
- 17.8%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- KK vs random
- 82.5% · #2
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and KK get all in before the flop, AA wins 82.0% of the time and KK takes 18.0%. Broken down, AA wins outright 81.8%, chops 0.5% and loses 17.8% — a margin of 64 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 81.2% (for example As Ah against Kd Kc); with both suits shared it is 82.6% (As Ah against Ks Kh). That is a spread of 1.44 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 69.8%, KK 17.0%, random 13.2%. AA gives up 12.2 points and KK gives up 1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and KK is worth 82.5% (rank 2). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 64 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 82 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and KK to 29.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From KK's side, 18.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.56:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 18.0% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 82.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KK really does hold exactly KK; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 82.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and KK to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Kd Kc | 6 | 81.2% | 81.0% | 0.4% | 18.6% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs Ks Kd | 24 | 82.0% | 81.8% | 0.5% | 17.7% |
| Both suits shared | As Ah vs Ks Kh | 6 | 82.6% | 82.3% | 0.5% | 17.1% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 88.8% of the time and KK 11.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, KK comes back on the turn and river 8.90% of the time. When KK leads on the flop, AA turns it around 11.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 90.4% of the time from the flop and 94.1% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 85.6% and KK 14.4%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 81.95% equity (the 82.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | KK wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 88.8% | 90.6% | 0.500% | 8.90% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KK ahead | 11.2% | 11.3% | 0.168% | 88.5% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | KK wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 85.6% | 94.3% | 0.517% | 5.14% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KK ahead | 14.4% | 6.89% | 0.144% | 93.0% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | KK |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 82.5% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 68.9% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 49.3% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 29.6% |
Related
FAQ
AA or KK — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 82.0% and KK 18.0%, a margin of 64 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs KK?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 81.2%, and with both suits shared it is 82.6% — a swing of up to 1.44 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 69.8%, KK 17.0%, random 13.2%. AA drops 12.2 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs KK?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 9.17% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, KK comes back 8.90%. When KK leads, AA comes back 11.3%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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