AA vs 99
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- AA Win
- 80.6%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- AA Lose
- 19.0%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and 99 get all in before the flop, AA wins 80.8% of the time and 99 takes 19.2%. Broken down, AA wins outright 80.6%, chops 0.4% and loses 19.0% — a margin of 61.5 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 80.2% (for example As Ah against 9d 9c); with both suits shared it is 81.5% (As Ah against 9s 9h). That is a spread of 1.29 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 70.4%, 99 17.6%, random 12.1%. AA gives up 10.4 points and 99 gives up 1.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and 99 is worth 72.2% (rank 6). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13 points, yet head to head the gap is 61.5 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 81 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 19. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and 99 to 17.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 99's side, 19.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.21:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 19.2% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 80.8% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 99 really does hold exactly 99; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 80.8% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and 99 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs 9d 9c | 6 | 80.2% | 80.1% | 0.3% | 19.6% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs 9s 9d | 24 | 80.7% | 80.5% | 0.4% | 19.1% |
| Both suits shared | As Ah vs 9s 9h | 6 | 81.5% | 81.3% | 0.4% | 18.3% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | 99 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 72.2% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 53.8% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 32.5% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 17.2% |
Related
FAQ
AA or 99 — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 80.8% and 99 19.2%, a margin of 61.5 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs 99?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 80.2%, and with both suits shared it is 81.5% — a swing of up to 1.29 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 70.4%, 99 17.6%, random 12.1%. AA drops 10.4 points compared with heads-up.
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