99

99 (pocket nines) wins 72.2% of the time against a single random opponent, which places it 6th out of the 169 starting hands — the top 3.6% of the range. At a six-handed table (five opponents) its equity falls to 26.5% and its rank moves to 13; nine-handed (eight opponents) it holds 17.2% for rank 18. A middle pair — frequently chased by two overcards.

As a pocket pair there is no suited twin; instead there are 6 combinations of it in the deck, so you are dealt it 0.45% of the time (6 of 1,326 two-card hands). The hand ranked one place above is TT at 75.1% and one place below is 88 at 69.2%. Every pocket pair flops a set about 11.8% of the time, so the pecking order among pairs is decided almost entirely before the flop.

Played heads-up against each of the other 168 hands, 99 is a favourite against 163 of them and an underdog against 5. Its best matchup is 92o at 93.7% and its worst is TT at 17.8% — a spread of 75.9 points, which is why calling 99 simply "strong" or "weak" says very little.

99 shares a rank with relatively few hands, so it is rarely on the wrong side of a kicker problem. What does hurt it is running into a higher pair, where the number bottoms out at 17.8%. The table further down lists all 168 opponents individually.

Within the 13 pocket pairs it comes 6 of 13. The strongest hand in that group, AA, is 13 points away, and the weakest, 22, sits 22 points below. Measured against the average equity of all 169 hands, 51%, 99 lands +21.2 points from the middle of the pack, and 5 hands in the full ranking are still ahead of it.

Adding players costs equity steadily: 72.2% against one opponent, 53.8% against two, 32.5% against four and 17.2% against eight. That last figure is 155% of an even nine-way share (11.1%). The Chen formula scores this hand at 9 points, and it arrives 0.45% of the time (6 of 1,326 combinations).

One caveat worth repeating: every number on this page assumes the opponent holds a completely random hand and that the pot goes to showdown. Real opponents hold ranges, and a range that has already put money in is stronger than random — which is exactly why 99 reads as 72.2% here but plays worse than that against a raise. Use the 168 rows in the table below to see which specific holdings are the problem, rather than treating the headline figure as a verdict on the hand.

99 flops a set or better (set, full house or quads) 11.8% of the time — 2,304 of 19,600 flops, or 1 in 8.5 — and exactly a set 10.8%. By the river that rises to 19.2%. Those figures are identical for every pocket pair; what differs from pair to pair is what the flop looks like when the set misses.

When the set misses, all three flop cards come in below 9 — leaving an overpair — 16.7% of the time, while at least one higher card lands 71.5% of the time (1 in 1.4). The chance of staying an overpair is 25.3% for TT (one pair up), and 10.3% for 88 (one pair down).

Against one random hand, 99 goes from 72.1% before the flop to 92.1% when it flops a set or better (11.8% of flops). Without a set, it holds 73.1% when all three cards are below 9 (still an overpair) and drops to 68.5% when a card above 9 lands (71.5%, 14,020 of 19,600 flops).

By board shape: rainbow 73.1%, two-tone 71.7%, monotone 67.6%. A monotone flop in one of your suits gives 73.9%. A paired board gives 74.7%, and a connected board (three ranks within five) 70.5%. The best row in the table is "Set or better (at least one 9 on the flop)" at 92.1%, the worst "Monotone (all three one suit)" at 67.6%.

The 72.2% at the top of the page is a 400,000-hand simulation; this table counts every deal of the opponent's two cards and the five-card board (2,097,572,400 per starting hand), which puts the pre-flop figure at 72.06% (a gap of 0.14 points). Each equity is taken with the flop out and the turn and river still to come.