99 vs AQo
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 99 Win
- 55.3%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- 99 Lose
- 44.4%
- Card combinations
- 72
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
- AQo vs random
- 64.4% · #14
Win, tie and loss for 99
When 99 and AQo get all in before the flop, 99 wins 55.5% of the time and AQo takes 44.5%. Broken down, 99 wins outright 55.3%, chops 0.4% and loses 44.4% — a margin of 10.9 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With both suits shared the number is 55.2% (for example 9s 9h against As Qh); with no shared suit it is 55.8% (9s 9h against Ad Qc). That is a spread of 0.65 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 99 44.1%, AQo 37.9%, random 17.9%. 99 gives up 11.3 points and AQo gives up 6.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 99 is worth 72.2% against a random hand (rank 6 of 169) and AQo is worth 64.4% (rank 14). The gap between them in the ranking is only 7.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 10.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 99 scoops roughly 55 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 44. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 99 would be down to 17.2% and AQo to 17.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQo's side, 44.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.24:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 44.6% of the pot you are playing for. 99 holds the other 55.5% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQo really does hold exactly AQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 99's 55.5% moves. Use the individual pages for 99 and AQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 99 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 9s 9h vs Ad Qc | 12 | 55.8% | 55.7% | 0.3% | 44.0% |
| One shared suit | 9s 9h vs As Qd | 48 | 55.4% | 55.2% | 0.4% | 44.4% |
| Both suits shared | 9s 9h vs As Qh | 12 | 55.2% | 54.9% | 0.5% | 44.6% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 99 | AQo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 64.4% |
| 2 | 53.8% | 46.9% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 30.3% |
| 8 | 17.2% | 17.5% |
Related
FAQ
99 or AQo — which is ahead preflop?
99 is the favourite. 99 takes 55.5% and AQo 44.5%, a margin of 10.9 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 99 vs AQo?
Yes. With both suits shared it is 55.2%, and with no shared suit it is 55.8% — a swing of up to 0.65 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 99 44.1%, AQo 37.9%, random 17.9%. 99 drops 11.3 points compared with heads-up.
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