TT vs AQo
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- TT Win
- 56.8%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- TT Lose
- 42.8%
- Card combinations
- 72
- TT vs random
- 75.1% · #5
- AQo vs random
- 64.4% · #14
Win, tie and loss for TT
When TT and AQo get all in before the flop, TT wins 57.0% of the time and AQo takes 43.0%. Broken down, TT wins outright 56.8%, chops 0.4% and loses 42.8% — a margin of 13.9 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With both suits shared the number is 56.4% (for example Ts Th against As Qh); with no shared suit it is 57.5% (Ts Th against Ad Qc). That is a spread of 1.17 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 46.0%, AQo 36.8%, random 17.3%. TT gives up 11 points and AQo gives up 6.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and AQo is worth 64.4% (rank 14). The gap between them in the ranking is only 10.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 13.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 57 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 43. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and AQo to 17.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQo's side, 43.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.33:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 43.0% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 57.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQo really does hold exactly AQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 57.0% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and AQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | TT Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Ts Th vs Ad Qc | 12 | 57.5% | 57.4% | 0.3% | 42.3% |
| One shared suit | Ts Th vs As Qd | 48 | 57.0% | 56.8% | 0.4% | 42.8% |
| Both suits shared | Ts Th vs As Qh | 12 | 56.4% | 56.1% | 0.5% | 43.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, TT is ahead 69.2% of the time and AQo 30.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When TT leads on the flop, AQo comes back on the turn and river 22.9% of the time. When AQo leads on the flop, TT turns it around 12.1% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 80.1% of the time from the flop and 88.6% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, TT leads 62.4% and AQo 37.6%. Counted exhaustively, TT finishes with 56.95% equity (the 57.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | TT wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 69.2% | 76.7% | 0.456% | 22.9% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQo ahead | 30.8% | 12.1% | 0.223% | 87.7% |
| After the turn | How often | TT wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 62.4% | 86.5% | 0.455% | 13.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQo ahead | 37.6% | 7.52% | 0.268% | 92.2% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | TT | AQo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75.1% | 64.4% |
| 2 | 57.8% | 46.9% |
| 4 | 36.1% | 30.3% |
| 8 | 19.3% | 17.5% |
Related
FAQ
TT or AQo — which is ahead preflop?
TT is the favourite. TT takes 57.0% and AQo 43.0%, a margin of 13.9 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change TT vs AQo?
Yes. With both suits shared it is 56.4%, and with no shared suit it is 57.5% — a swing of up to 1.17 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is TT 46.0%, AQo 36.8%, random 17.3%. TT drops 11 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in TT vs AQo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 19.6% of the time (level spots left out). When TT leads, AQo comes back 22.9%. When AQo leads, TT comes back 12.1%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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