AQo vs 54s
Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
- AQo Win
- 58.5%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AQo Lose
- 41.0%
- Card combinations
- 48
- AQo vs random
- 64.4% · #14
- 54s vs random
- 41.4% · #138
Win, tie and loss for AQo
When AQo and 54s get all in before the flop, AQo wins 58.7% of the time and 54s takes 41.3%. Broken down, AQo wins outright 58.5%, chops 0.5% and loses 41.0% — a margin of 17.4 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 57.9% (for example As Qh against 5d 4d); with one shared suit it is 59.5% (As Qh against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 1.59 points across the 48 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQo 44.3%, 54s 30.5%, random 25.2%. AQo gives up 14.4 points and 54s gives up 10.8, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AQo is worth 64.4% against a random hand (rank 14 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 23 points, yet head to head the gap is 17.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQo scoops roughly 58 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 41. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQo would be down to 17.5% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 54s's side, 41.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.42:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 41.3% of the pot you are playing for. AQo holds the other 58.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 48 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQo's 58.7% moves. Use the individual pages for AQo and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AQo Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Qh vs 5d 4d | 24 | 57.9% | 57.7% | 0.5% | 41.8% |
| One shared suit | As Qh vs 5s 4s | 24 | 59.5% | 59.3% | 0.5% | 40.2% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AQo is ahead 72.2% of the time and 54s 27.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AQo leads on the flop, 54s comes back on the turn and river 26.7% of the time. When 54s leads on the flop, AQo turns it around 21.5% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.2% of the time from the flop and 84.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AQo leads 65.0% and 54s 35.0%. Counted exhaustively, AQo finishes with 58.85% equity (the 58.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AQo wins | Tie | 54s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQo ahead | 72.2% | 72.9% | 0.445% | 26.7% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 54s ahead | 27.8% | 21.5% | 0.686% | 77.8% |
| After the turn | How often | AQo wins | Tie | 54s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQo ahead | 65.0% | 83.3% | 0.444% | 16.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 54s ahead | 35.0% | 12.6% | 0.637% | 86.7% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AQo | 54s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64.4% | 41.4% |
| 2 | 46.9% | 28.9% |
| 4 | 30.3% | 19.0% |
| 8 | 17.5% | 12.6% |
Related
FAQ
AQo or 54s — which is ahead preflop?
AQo is the favourite. AQo takes 58.7% and 54s 41.3%, a margin of 17.4 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AQo vs 54s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 57.9%, and with one shared suit it is 59.5% — a swing of up to 1.59 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQo 44.3%, 54s 30.5%, random 25.2%. AQo drops 14.4 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AQo vs 54s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 25.2% of the time (level spots left out). When AQo leads, 54s comes back 26.7%. When 54s leads, AQo comes back 21.5%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 33 distinct figures — Method