TT vs KQo
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- TT Win
- 56.2%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- TT Lose
- 43.4%
- Card combinations
- 72
- TT vs random
- 75.1% · #5
- KQo vs random
- 61.5% · #23
Win, tie and loss for TT
When TT and KQo get all in before the flop, TT wins 56.4% of the time and KQo takes 43.6%. Broken down, TT wins outright 56.2%, chops 0.4% and loses 43.4% — a margin of 12.7 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With both suits shared the number is 56.1% (for example Ts Th against Ks Qh); with no shared suit it is 56.7% (Ts Th against Kd Qc). That is a spread of 0.61 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 45.4%, KQo 36.4%, random 18.2%. TT gives up 11 points and KQo gives up 7.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and KQo is worth 61.5% (rank 23). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.6 points, yet head to head the gap is 12.7 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 56 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 43. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and KQo to 16.7%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From KQo's side, 43.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.29:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 43.6% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 56.4% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQo really does hold exactly KQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 56.4% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and KQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | TT Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Ts Th vs Kd Qc | 12 | 56.7% | 56.5% | 0.3% | 43.1% |
| One shared suit | Ts Th vs Ks Qd | 48 | 56.4% | 56.2% | 0.4% | 43.4% |
| Both suits shared | Ts Th vs Ks Qh | 12 | 56.1% | 55.9% | 0.5% | 43.7% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, TT is ahead 69.0% of the time and KQo 31.0%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When TT leads on the flop, KQo comes back on the turn and river 23.3% of the time. When KQo leads on the flop, TT turns it around 12.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 79.8% of the time from the flop and 88.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, TT leads 62.0% and KQo 38.0%. Counted exhaustively, TT finishes with 56.49% equity (the 56.4% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | TT wins | Tie | KQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 69.0% | 76.2% | 0.508% | 23.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KQo ahead | 31.0% | 12.0% | 0.147% | 87.9% |
| After the turn | How often | TT wins | Tie | KQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 62.0% | 86.2% | 0.557% | 13.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KQo ahead | 38.0% | 7.56% | 0.133% | 92.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | TT | KQo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75.1% | 61.5% |
| 2 | 57.8% | 44.4% |
| 4 | 36.1% | 29.2% |
| 8 | 19.3% | 16.7% |
Related
FAQ
TT or KQo — which is ahead preflop?
TT is the favourite. TT takes 56.4% and KQo 43.6%, a margin of 12.7 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change TT vs KQo?
Yes. With both suits shared it is 56.1%, and with no shared suit it is 56.7% — a swing of up to 0.61 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is TT 45.4%, KQo 36.4%, random 18.2%. TT drops 11 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in TT vs KQo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 19.8% of the time (level spots left out). When TT leads, KQo comes back 23.3%. When KQo leads, TT comes back 12.0%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 28 distinct figures — Method