TT vs AKs

When TT and AKs get all in before the flop, TT wins 53.9% of the time and AKs takes 46.1%. Broken down, TT wins outright 53.7%, chops 0.4% and loses 45.9% — a margin of 7.8 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 53.7% (for example Ts Th against Ad Kd); with one shared suit it is 54.1% (Ts Th against As Ks). That is a spread of 0.42 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 43.8%, AKs 40.3%, random 15.9%. TT gives up 10.2 points and AKs gives up 5.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and AKs is worth 67.2% (rank 8). The gap between them in the ranking is only 7.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 7.8 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 54 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 46. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and AKs to 22.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AKs's side, 46.1% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.17:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 46.1% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 53.9% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AKs really does hold exactly AKs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 53.9% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and AKs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, TT is ahead 68.4% of the time and AKs 31.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When TT leads on the flop, AKs comes back on the turn and river 26.3% of the time. When AKs leads on the flop, TT turns it around 12.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.9% of the time from the flop and 87.5% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, TT leads 60.3% and AKs 39.7%. Counted exhaustively, TT finishes with 54.06% equity (the 53.9% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).