99 vs AKs
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 99 Win
- 52.4%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- 99 Lose
- 47.1%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
Win, tie and loss for 99
When 99 and AKs get all in before the flop, 99 wins 52.6% of the time and AKs takes 47.4%. Broken down, 99 wins outright 52.4%, chops 0.4% and loses 47.1% — a margin of 5.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 52.5% (for example 9s 9h against Ad Kd); with one shared suit it is 52.7% (9s 9h against As Ks). That is a spread of 0.16 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 99 41.8%, AKs 41.5%, random 16.7%. 99 gives up 10.9 points and AKs gives up 5.8, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 99 is worth 72.2% against a random hand (rank 6 of 169) and AKs is worth 67.2% (rank 8). The gap between them in the ranking is only 5 points, yet head to head the gap is 5.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 99 scoops roughly 52 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 47. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 99 would be down to 17.2% and AKs to 22.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AKs's side, 47.4% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.11:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 47.4% of the pot you are playing for. 99 holds the other 52.6% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AKs really does hold exactly AKs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 99's 52.6% moves. Use the individual pages for 99 and AKs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 99 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 9s 9h vs Ad Kd | 12 | 52.5% | 52.4% | 0.4% | 47.3% |
| One shared suit | 9s 9h vs As Ks | 12 | 52.7% | 52.5% | 0.5% | 47.0% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 99 is ahead 68.2% of the time and AKs 31.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 99 leads on the flop, AKs comes back on the turn and river 27.7% of the time. When AKs leads on the flop, 99 turns it around 10.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.3% of the time from the flop and 87.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 99 leads 59.6% and AKs 40.4%. Counted exhaustively, 99 finishes with 52.58% equity (the 52.6% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 99 wins | Tie | AKs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 68.2% | 71.8% | 0.458% | 27.7% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AKs ahead | 31.8% | 10.7% | 0.307% | 89.0% |
| After the turn | How often | 99 wins | Tie | AKs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 59.6% | 83.5% | 0.458% | 16.0% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AKs ahead | 40.4% | 6.36% | 0.339% | 93.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 99 | AKs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 67.2% |
| 2 | 53.8% | 50.3% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 35.4% |
| 8 | 17.2% | 22.4% |
Related
FAQ
99 or AKs — which is ahead preflop?
99 is the favourite. 99 takes 52.6% and AKs 47.4%, a margin of 5.3 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 99 vs AKs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 52.5%, and with one shared suit it is 52.7% — a swing of up to 0.16 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 99 41.8%, AKs 41.5%, random 16.7%. 99 drops 10.9 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 99 vs AKs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 22.3% of the time (level spots left out). When 99 leads, AKs comes back 27.7%. When AKs leads, 99 comes back 10.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
431 words / 30 distinct figures — Method