99 vs KQs
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 99 Win
- 52.2%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- 99 Lose
- 47.4%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
- KQs vs random
- 63.4% · #16
Win, tie and loss for 99
When 99 and KQs get all in before the flop, 99 wins 52.4% of the time and KQs takes 47.6%. Broken down, 99 wins outright 52.2%, chops 0.4% and loses 47.4% — a margin of 4.8 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 52.2% (for example 9s 9h against Kd Qd); with one shared suit it is 52.6% (9s 9h against Ks Qs). That is a spread of 0.38 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 99 41.4%, KQs 40.6%, random 18.0%. 99 gives up 11 points and KQs gives up 7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 99 is worth 72.2% against a random hand (rank 6 of 169) and KQs is worth 63.4% (rank 16). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 4.8 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 99 scoops roughly 52 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 47. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 99 would be down to 17.2% and KQs to 20.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From KQs's side, 47.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.1:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 47.6% of the pot you are playing for. 99 holds the other 52.4% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQs really does hold exactly KQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 99's 52.4% moves. Use the individual pages for 99 and KQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 99 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 9s 9h vs Kd Qd | 12 | 52.2% | 52.0% | 0.4% | 47.6% |
| One shared suit | 9s 9h vs Ks Qs | 12 | 52.6% | 52.4% | 0.4% | 47.2% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 99 is ahead 68.0% of the time and KQs 32.0%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 99 leads on the flop, KQs comes back on the turn and river 28.0% of the time. When KQs leads on the flop, 99 turns it around 11.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.8% of the time from the flop and 87.0% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 99 leads 59.4% and KQs 40.6%. Counted exhaustively, 99 finishes with 52.56% equity (the 52.4% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 99 wins | Tie | KQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 68.0% | 71.5% | 0.487% | 28.0% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KQs ahead | 32.0% | 11.7% | 0.259% | 88.0% |
| After the turn | How often | 99 wins | Tie | KQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 59.4% | 83.2% | 0.549% | 16.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KQs ahead | 40.6% | 7.25% | 0.217% | 92.5% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 99 | KQs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 63.4% |
| 2 | 53.8% | 47.2% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 32.3% |
| 8 | 17.2% | 20.4% |
Related
FAQ
99 or KQs — which is ahead preflop?
99 is the favourite. 99 takes 52.4% and KQs 47.6%, a margin of 4.8 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 99 vs KQs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 52.2%, and with one shared suit it is 52.6% — a swing of up to 0.38 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 99 41.4%, KQs 40.6%, random 18.0%. 99 drops 11 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 99 vs KQs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 22.8% of the time (level spots left out). When 99 leads, KQs comes back 28.0%. When KQs leads, 99 comes back 11.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 29 distinct figures — Method