KQs vs 22
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- KQs Win
- 50.8%
- Tie
- 0.9%
- KQs Lose
- 48.3%
- Card combinations
- 24
- KQs vs random
- 63.4% · #16
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
Win, tie and loss for KQs
When KQs and 22 get all in before the flop, KQs wins 51.2% of the time and 22 takes 48.8%. Broken down, KQs wins outright 50.8%, chops 0.9% and loses 48.3% — a margin of 2.5 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 51.1% (for example Ks Qs against 2s 2h); with no shared suit it is 51.3% (Ks Qs against 2h 2d). That is a spread of 0.18 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes KQs 42.8%, 22 29.9%, random 27.3%. KQs gives up 8.5 points and 22 gives up 18.8, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, KQs is worth 63.4% against a random hand (rank 16 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.5 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, KQs scoops roughly 51 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 48. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, KQs would be down to 20.4% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 22's side, 48.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.05:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 48.8% of the pot you are playing for. KQs holds the other 51.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, KQs's 51.2% moves. Use the individual pages for KQs and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | KQs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Ks Qs vs 2h 2d | 12 | 51.3% | 50.9% | 0.9% | 48.2% |
| One shared suit | Ks Qs vs 2s 2h | 12 | 51.1% | 50.7% | 0.9% | 48.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, KQs is ahead 32.2% of the time and 22 67.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When KQs leads on the flop, 22 comes back on the turn and river 10.3% of the time. When 22 leads on the flop, KQs turns it around 32.5% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 73.7% of the time from the flop and 84.9% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, KQs leads 42.0% and 22 58.0%. Counted exhaustively, KQs finishes with 51.26% equity (the 51.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | KQs wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KQs ahead | 32.2% | 89.3% | 0.430% | 10.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 67.8% | 32.5% | 1.14% | 66.3% |
| After the turn | How often | KQs wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KQs ahead | 42.0% | 93.3% | 0.585% | 6.10% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 58.0% | 20.0% | 1.15% | 78.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | KQs | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63.4% | 50.2% |
| 2 | 47.2% | 30.2% |
| 4 | 32.3% | 17.8% |
| 8 | 20.4% | 12.5% |
Related
FAQ
KQs or 22 — which is ahead preflop?
KQs is the favourite. KQs takes 51.2% and 22 48.8%, a margin of 2.5 points, with 0.9% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change KQs vs 22?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 51.1%, and with no shared suit it is 51.3% — a swing of up to 0.18 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is KQs 42.8%, 22 29.9%, random 27.3%. KQs drops 8.5 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in KQs vs 22?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 25.4% of the time (level spots left out). When KQs leads, 22 comes back 10.3%. When 22 leads, KQs comes back 32.5%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 30 distinct figures — Method