AJs vs 22

When AJs and 22 get all in before the flop, AJs wins 50.5% of the time and 22 takes 49.5%. Broken down, AJs wins outright 50.2%, chops 0.6% and loses 49.2% — a margin of 1 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 50.3% (for example As Js against 2s 2h); with no shared suit it is 50.7% (As Js against 2h 2d). That is a spread of 0.43 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJs 42.0%, 22 30.4%, random 27.7%. AJs gives up 8.6 points and 22 gives up 19.1, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AJs is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 11 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 15.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 1 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJs scoops roughly 50 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 49. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJs would be down to 20.1% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 22's side, 49.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.02:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 49.5% of the pot you are playing for. AJs holds the other 50.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJs's 50.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AJs and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AJs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 22 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AJs leads on the flop, 22 comes back on the turn and river 10.9% of the time. When 22 leads on the flop, AJs turns it around 32.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 73.9% of the time from the flop and 84.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AJs leads 41.3% and 22 58.7%. Counted exhaustively, AJs finishes with 50.54% equity (the 50.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).