AJs vs 44
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- AJs Win
- 49.1%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AJs Lose
- 50.4%
- Card combinations
- 24
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
- 44 vs random
- 57.0% · #48
Win, tie and loss for AJs
When AJs and 44 get all in before the flop, AJs wins 49.4% of the time and 44 takes 50.6%. Broken down, AJs wins outright 49.1%, chops 0.5% and loses 50.4% — a margin of -1.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 49.3% (for example As Js against 4s 4h); with no shared suit it is 49.5% (As Js against 4h 4d). That is a spread of 0.24 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJs 41.4%, 44 34.4%, random 24.2%. AJs gives up 8 points and 44 gives up 16.2, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AJs is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 11 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 1.3 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJs scoops roughly 49 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJs would be down to 20.1% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 44's side, 50.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.98:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 50.6% of the pot you are playing for. AJs holds the other 49.4% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJs's 49.4% moves. Use the individual pages for AJs and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AJs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Js vs 4h 4d | 12 | 49.5% | 49.3% | 0.5% | 50.3% |
| One shared suit | As Js vs 4s 4h | 12 | 49.3% | 49.0% | 0.5% | 50.5% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AJs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 44 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AJs leads on the flop, 44 comes back on the turn and river 11.3% of the time. When 44 leads on the flop, AJs turns it around 30.6% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 75.0% of the time from the flop and 85.7% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AJs leads 40.9% and 44 59.1%. Counted exhaustively, AJs finishes with 49.23% equity (the 49.4% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AJs wins | Tie | 44 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs ahead | 31.8% | 88.3% | 0.445% | 11.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 44 ahead | 68.2% | 30.6% | 0.534% | 68.9% |
| After the turn | How often | AJs wins | Tie | 44 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs ahead | 40.9% | 92.7% | 0.539% | 6.80% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 44 ahead | 59.1% | 18.7% | 0.482% | 80.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AJs | 44 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65.4% | 57.0% |
| 2 | 48.0% | 37.0% |
| 4 | 32.2% | 20.7% |
| 8 | 20.1% | 13.1% |
Related
FAQ
AJs or 44 — which is ahead preflop?
44 is the favourite. AJs takes 49.4% and 44 50.6%, a margin of 1.3 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AJs vs 44?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 49.3%, and with no shared suit it is 49.5% — a swing of up to 0.24 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AJs 41.4%, 44 34.4%, random 24.2%. AJs drops 8 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AJs vs 44?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 24.5% of the time (level spots left out). When AJs leads, 44 comes back 11.3%. When 44 leads, AJs comes back 30.6%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 30 distinct figures — Method