AKs vs 44

When AKs and 44 get all in before the flop, AKs wins 48.7% of the time and 44 takes 51.3%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 48.4%, chops 0.5% and loses 51.0% — a margin of -2.6 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 48.6% (for example As Ks against 4s 4h); with no shared suit it is 48.8% (As Ks against 4h 4d). That is a spread of 0.21 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 42.4%, 44 34.3%, random 23.3%. AKs gives up 6.3 points and 44 gives up 17.1, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 10.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.6 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 48 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 51. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 44's side, 51.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.95:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 51.3% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 48.7% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 48.7% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.