AKs vs 55
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- AKs Win
- 47.8%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AKs Lose
- 51.7%
- Card combinations
- 24
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
- 55 vs random
- 60.3% · #27
Win, tie and loss for AKs
When AKs and 55 get all in before the flop, AKs wins 48.1% of the time and 55 takes 51.9%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 47.8%, chops 0.5% and loses 51.7% — a margin of -3.8 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 47.9% (for example As Ks against 5s 5h); with no shared suit it is 48.3% (As Ks against 5h 5d). That is a spread of 0.46 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 42.2%, 55 36.3%, random 21.5%. AKs gives up 5.9 points and 55 gives up 15.7, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 55 is worth 60.3% (rank 27). The gap between them in the ranking is only 6.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 3.8 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 48 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 55 to 13.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 55's side, 51.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.93:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 51.9% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 48.1% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 55 really does hold exactly 55; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 48.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 55 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AKs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ks vs 5h 5d | 12 | 48.3% | 48.1% | 0.5% | 51.5% |
| One shared suit | As Ks vs 5s 5h | 12 | 47.9% | 47.6% | 0.5% | 51.9% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 55 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AKs leads on the flop, 55 comes back on the turn and river 11.4% of the time. When 55 leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 28.9% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.2% of the time from the flop and 86.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AKs leads 40.6% and 55 59.4%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 48.03% equity (the 48.1% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AKs wins | Tie | 55 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 31.8% | 88.3% | 0.269% | 11.4% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 55 ahead | 68.2% | 28.9% | 0.574% | 70.5% |
| After the turn | How often | AKs wins | Tie | 55 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 40.6% | 92.7% | 0.308% | 7.01% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 55 ahead | 59.4% | 17.2% | 0.592% | 82.2% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AKs | 55 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67.2% | 60.3% |
| 2 | 50.3% | 40.1% |
| 4 | 35.4% | 22.6% |
| 8 | 22.4% | 13.2% |
Related
FAQ
AKs or 55 — which is ahead preflop?
55 is the favourite. AKs takes 48.1% and 55 51.9%, a margin of 3.8 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AKs vs 55?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 47.9%, and with no shared suit it is 48.3% — a swing of up to 0.46 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 42.2%, 55 36.3%, random 21.5%. AKs drops 5.9 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AKs vs 55?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 23.3% of the time (level spots left out). When AKs leads, 55 comes back 11.4%. When 55 leads, AKs comes back 28.9%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 30 distinct figures — Method