AJs vs 55
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- AJs Win
- 48.5%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AJs Lose
- 51.0%
- Card combinations
- 24
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
- 55 vs random
- 60.3% · #27
Win, tie and loss for AJs
When AJs and 55 get all in before the flop, AJs wins 48.8% of the time and 55 takes 51.2%. Broken down, AJs wins outright 48.5%, chops 0.5% and loses 51.0% — a margin of -2.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 48.5% (for example As Js against 5s 5h); with no shared suit it is 49.1% (As Js against 5h 5d). That is a spread of 0.58 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJs 41.1%, 55 36.4%, random 22.5%. AJs gives up 7.7 points and 55 gives up 14.9, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AJs is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 11 of 169) and 55 is worth 60.3% (rank 27). The gap between them in the ranking is only 5.1 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJs scoops roughly 49 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 51. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJs would be down to 20.1% and 55 to 13.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 55's side, 51.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.95:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 51.2% of the pot you are playing for. AJs holds the other 48.8% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 55 really does hold exactly 55; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJs's 48.8% moves. Use the individual pages for AJs and 55 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AJs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Js vs 5h 5d | 12 | 49.1% | 48.9% | 0.4% | 50.7% |
| One shared suit | As Js vs 5s 5h | 12 | 48.5% | 48.2% | 0.5% | 51.3% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AJs | 55 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65.4% | 60.3% |
| 2 | 48.0% | 40.1% |
| 4 | 32.2% | 22.6% |
| 8 | 20.1% | 13.2% |
Related
FAQ
AJs or 55 — which is ahead preflop?
55 is the favourite. AJs takes 48.8% and 55 51.2%, a margin of 2.4 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AJs vs 55?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 48.5%, and with no shared suit it is 49.1% — a swing of up to 0.58 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AJs 41.1%, 55 36.4%, random 22.5%. AJs drops 7.7 points compared with heads-up.
424 words / 29 distinct figures — Method
