AKs vs 77

When AKs and 77 get all in before the flop, AKs wins 47.7% of the time and 77 takes 52.3%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 47.5%, chops 0.4% and loses 52.1% — a margin of -4.6 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 47.4% (for example As Ks against 7s 7h); with no shared suit it is 48.0% (As Ks against 7h 7d). That is a spread of 0.54 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 41.9%, 77 39.2%, random 18.9%. AKs gives up 5.8 points and 77 gives up 13.1, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 77 is worth 66.3% (rank 9). The gap between them in the ranking is only 0.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 4.6 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 48 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 77 to 14.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 77's side, 52.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.91:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.3% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 47.7% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 77 really does hold exactly 77; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 47.7% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 77 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 77 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, 77 comes back on the turn and river 11.0% of the time. When 77 leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 28.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.9% of the time from the flop and 87.1% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 40.5% and 77 59.5%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 47.69% equity (the 47.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).