AKs vs 33

When AKs and 33 get all in before the flop, AKs wins 49.2% of the time and 33 takes 50.8%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 48.9%, chops 0.6% and loses 50.5% — a margin of -1.6 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 48.9% (for example As Ks against 3s 3h); with no shared suit it is 49.5% (As Ks against 3h 3d). That is a spread of 0.66 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 42.6%, 33 32.6%, random 24.8%. AKs gives up 6.6 points and 33 gives up 18.2, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 33 is worth 53.7% (rank 67). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.5 points, yet head to head the gap is 1.6 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 49 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 33 to 12.8%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 33's side, 50.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.97:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 50.8% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 49.2% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 33 really does hold exactly 33; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 49.2% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 33 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.