AKs vs 22

When AKs and 22 get all in before the flop, AKs wins 49.8% of the time and 22 takes 50.2%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 49.5%, chops 0.7% and loses 49.8% — a margin of -0.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 49.6% (for example As Ks against 2s 2h); with no shared suit it is 50.1% (As Ks against 2h 2d). That is a spread of 0.47 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 42.8%, 22 30.6%, random 26.7%. AKs gives up 7.1 points and 22 gives up 19.6, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 17 points, yet head to head the gap is 0.3 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 50 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 22's side, 50.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.99:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 50.2% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 49.8% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 49.8% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 22 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, 22 comes back on the turn and river 10.9% of the time. When 22 leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 31.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.6% of the time from the flop and 85.3% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 41.0% and 22 59.0%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 49.89% equity (the 49.8% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).