22 vs 54s
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 22 Win
- 46.9%
- Tie
- 3.5%
- 22 Lose
- 49.6%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
- 54s vs random
- 41.4% · #138
Win, tie and loss for 22
When 22 and 54s get all in before the flop, 22 wins 48.7% of the time and 54s takes 51.3%. Broken down, 22 wins outright 46.9%, chops 3.5% and loses 49.6% — a margin of -2.7 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 48.6% (for example 2s 2h against 5d 4d); with one shared suit it is 48.8% (2s 2h against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 0.17 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 22 28.9%, 54s 32.6%, random 38.4%. 22 gives up 19.7 points and 54s gives up 18.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 22 is worth 50.2% against a random hand (rank 88 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.7 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 22 scoops roughly 47 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 22 would be down to 12.5% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 54s's side, 51.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.95:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 51.3% of the pot you are playing for. 22 holds the other 48.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 22's 48.7% moves. Use the individual pages for 22 and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 22 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 2s 2h vs 5d 4d | 12 | 48.6% | 46.8% | 3.5% | 49.6% |
| One shared suit | 2s 2h vs 5s 4s | 12 | 48.8% | 47.0% | 3.5% | 49.5% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 22 is ahead 67.4% of the time and 54s 32.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 22 leads on the flop, 54s comes back on the turn and river 31.1% of the time. When 54s leads on the flop, 22 turns it around 11.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 72.0% of the time from the flop and 83.0% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 22 leads 57.1% and 54s 42.9%. Counted exhaustively, 22 finishes with 48.65% equity (the 48.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 22 wins | Tie | 54s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 ahead | 67.4% | 64.2% | 4.66% | 31.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 54s ahead | 32.6% | 11.0% | 1.05% | 87.9% |
| After the turn | How often | 22 wins | Tie | 54s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 ahead | 57.1% | 77.1% | 4.33% | 18.6% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 54s ahead | 42.9% | 6.80% | 2.36% | 90.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 22 | 54s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50.2% | 41.4% |
| 2 | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| 4 | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| 8 | 12.5% | 12.6% |
Related
FAQ
22 or 54s — which is ahead preflop?
54s is the favourite. 22 takes 48.7% and 54s 51.3%, a margin of 2.7 points, with 3.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 22 vs 54s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 48.6%, and with one shared suit it is 48.8% — a swing of up to 0.17 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 22 28.9%, 54s 32.6%, random 38.4%. 22 drops 19.7 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 22 vs 54s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 24.6% of the time (level spots left out). When 22 leads, 54s comes back 31.1%. When 54s leads, 22 comes back 11.0%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 33 distinct figures — Method