22 vs 54s
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 22 Win
- 46.9%
- Tie
- 3.5%
- 22 Lose
- 49.6%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
- 54s vs random
- 41.4% · #138
Win, tie and loss for 22
When 22 and 54s get all in before the flop, 22 wins 48.7% of the time and 54s takes 51.3%. Broken down, 22 wins outright 46.9%, chops 3.5% and loses 49.6% — a margin of -2.7 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 48.6% (for example 2s 2h against 5d 4d); with one shared suit it is 48.8% (2s 2h against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 0.17 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 22 28.9%, 54s 32.6%, random 38.4%. 22 gives up 19.7 points and 54s gives up 18.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 22 is worth 50.2% against a random hand (rank 88 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 2.7 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 22 scoops roughly 47 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 22 would be down to 12.5% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 54s's side, 51.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.95:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 51.3% of the pot you are playing for. 22 holds the other 48.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 22's 48.7% moves. Use the individual pages for 22 and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 22 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 2s 2h vs 5d 4d | 12 | 48.6% | 46.8% | 3.5% | 49.6% |
| One shared suit | 2s 2h vs 5s 4s | 12 | 48.8% | 47.0% | 3.5% | 49.5% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 22 | 54s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50.2% | 41.4% |
| 2 | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| 4 | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| 8 | 12.5% | 12.6% |
Related
FAQ
22 or 54s — which is ahead preflop?
54s is the favourite. 22 takes 48.7% and 54s 51.3%, a margin of 2.7 points, with 3.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 22 vs 54s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 48.6%, and with one shared suit it is 48.8% — a swing of up to 0.17 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 22 28.9%, 54s 32.6%, random 38.4%. 22 drops 19.7 points compared with heads-up.
424 words / 33 distinct figures — Method