22 vs 65s
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 22 Win
- 46.3%
- Tie
- 3.1%
- 22 Lose
- 50.6%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
- 65s vs random
- 43.0% · #128
Win, tie and loss for 22
When 22 and 65s get all in before the flop, 22 wins 47.8% of the time and 65s takes 52.2%. Broken down, 22 wins outright 46.3%, chops 3.1% and loses 50.6% — a margin of -4.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 47.6% (for example 2s 2h against 6d 5d); with one shared suit it is 48.0% (2s 2h against 6s 5s). That is a spread of 0.43 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 22 29.2%, 65s 34.5%, random 36.3%. 22 gives up 18.6 points and 65s gives up 17.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 22 is worth 50.2% against a random hand (rank 88 of 169) and 65s is worth 43.0% (rank 128). The gap between them in the ranking is only 7.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 4.3 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 22 scoops roughly 46 pots, splits about 3, and loses the remaining 51. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 22 would be down to 12.5% and 65s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 65s's side, 52.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.92:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.2% of the pot you are playing for. 22 holds the other 47.8% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 65s really does hold exactly 65s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 22's 47.8% moves. Use the individual pages for 22 and 65s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 22 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 2s 2h vs 6d 5d | 12 | 47.6% | 46.1% | 3.1% | 50.8% |
| One shared suit | 2s 2h vs 6s 5s | 12 | 48.0% | 46.5% | 3.1% | 50.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 22 is ahead 67.3% of the time and 65s 32.7%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 22 leads on the flop, 65s comes back on the turn and river 32.2% of the time. When 65s leads on the flop, 22 turns it around 11.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 71.7% of the time from the flop and 83.1% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 22 leads 56.7% and 65s 43.3%. Counted exhaustively, 22 finishes with 47.98% equity (the 47.8% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 22 wins | Tie | 65s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 ahead | 67.3% | 63.7% | 4.12% | 32.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 65s ahead | 32.7% | 11.0% | 1.01% | 88.0% |
| After the turn | How often | 22 wins | Tie | 65s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 ahead | 56.7% | 76.8% | 3.84% | 19.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 65s ahead | 43.3% | 6.63% | 2.13% | 91.2% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 22 | 65s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50.2% | 43.0% |
| 2 | 30.2% | 30.1% |
| 4 | 17.8% | 19.5% |
| 8 | 12.5% | 12.6% |
Related
FAQ
22 or 65s — which is ahead preflop?
65s is the favourite. 22 takes 47.8% and 65s 52.2%, a margin of 4.3 points, with 3.1% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 22 vs 65s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 47.6%, and with one shared suit it is 48.0% — a swing of up to 0.43 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 22 29.2%, 65s 34.5%, random 36.3%. 22 drops 18.6 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 22 vs 65s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 25.2% of the time (level spots left out). When 22 leads, 65s comes back 32.2%. When 65s leads, 22 comes back 11.0%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 34 distinct figures — Method