AJo vs 22
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- AJo Win
- 47.7%
- Tie
- 0.6%
- AJo Lose
- 51.7%
- Card combinations
- 72
- AJo vs random
- 63.6% · #15
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
Win, tie and loss for AJo
When AJo and 22 get all in before the flop, AJo wins 48.0% of the time and 22 takes 52.0%. Broken down, AJo wins outright 47.7%, chops 0.6% and loses 51.7% — a margin of -3.9 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 47.6% (for example As Jh against 2d 2c); with both suits shared it is 48.3% (As Jh against 2s 2h). That is a spread of 0.68 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJo 39.2%, 22 31.9%, random 28.9%. AJo gives up 8.9 points and 22 gives up 20.1, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AJo is worth 63.6% against a random hand (rank 15 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 3.9 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJo scoops roughly 48 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJo would be down to 16.1% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 22's side, 52.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.92:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.0% of the pot you are playing for. AJo holds the other 48.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJo's 48.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AJo and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AJo Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Jh vs 2d 2c | 12 | 47.6% | 47.3% | 0.6% | 52.1% |
| One shared suit | As Jh vs 2s 2d | 48 | 48.1% | 47.8% | 0.6% | 51.6% |
| Both suits shared | As Jh vs 2s 2h | 12 | 48.3% | 48.0% | 0.6% | 51.4% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AJo | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63.6% | 50.2% |
| 2 | 45.4% | 30.2% |
| 4 | 28.7% | 17.8% |
| 8 | 16.1% | 12.5% |
Related
FAQ
AJo or 22 — which is ahead preflop?
22 is the favourite. AJo takes 48.0% and 22 52.0%, a margin of 3.9 points, with 0.6% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AJo vs 22?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 47.6%, and with both suits shared it is 48.3% — a swing of up to 0.68 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AJo 39.2%, 22 31.9%, random 28.9%. AJo drops 8.9 points compared with heads-up.
424 words / 30 distinct figures — Method