AJo vs 44

When AJo and 44 get all in before the flop, AJo wins 46.7% of the time and 44 takes 53.3%. Broken down, AJo wins outright 46.5%, chops 0.5% and loses 53.1% — a margin of -6.6 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 46.2% (for example As Jh against 4d 4c); with both suits shared it is 47.1% (As Jh against 4s 4h). That is a spread of 0.92 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJo 38.7%, 44 36.0%, random 25.3%. AJo gives up 8 points and 44 gives up 17.3, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AJo is worth 63.6% against a random hand (rank 15 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 6.6 points, yet head to head the gap is 6.6 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJo scoops roughly 46 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 53. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJo would be down to 16.1% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 44's side, 53.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.88:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 53.3% of the pot you are playing for. AJo holds the other 46.7% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJo's 46.7% moves. Use the individual pages for AJo and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AJo is ahead 31.0% of the time and 44 69.0%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AJo leads on the flop, 44 comes back on the turn and river 10.9% of the time. When 44 leads on the flop, AJo turns it around 27.4% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.2% of the time from the flop and 86.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AJo leads 38.9% and 44 61.1%. Counted exhaustively, AJo finishes with 46.67% equity (the 46.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).