AJo vs 33
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- AJo Win
- 47.0%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AJo Lose
- 52.5%
- Card combinations
- 72
- AJo vs random
- 63.6% · #15
- 33 vs random
- 53.7% · #67
Win, tie and loss for AJo
When AJo and 33 get all in before the flop, AJo wins 47.3% of the time and 33 takes 52.7%. Broken down, AJo wins outright 47.0%, chops 0.5% and loses 52.5% — a margin of -5.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 47.0% (for example As Jh against 3d 3c); with both suits shared it is 47.9% (As Jh against 3s 3h). That is a spread of 0.9 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJo 38.7%, 33 34.1%, random 27.2%. AJo gives up 8.6 points and 33 gives up 18.6, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AJo is worth 63.6% against a random hand (rank 15 of 169) and 33 is worth 53.7% (rank 67). The gap between them in the ranking is only 9.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 5.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJo scoops roughly 47 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJo would be down to 16.1% and 33 to 12.8%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 33's side, 52.7% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.9:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.7% of the pot you are playing for. AJo holds the other 47.3% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 33 really does hold exactly 33; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJo's 47.3% moves. Use the individual pages for AJo and 33 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AJo Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Jh vs 3d 3c | 12 | 47.0% | 46.8% | 0.5% | 52.8% |
| One shared suit | As Jh vs 3s 3d | 48 | 47.2% | 46.9% | 0.5% | 52.5% |
| Both suits shared | As Jh vs 3s 3h | 12 | 47.9% | 47.6% | 0.6% | 51.8% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AJo is ahead 31.0% of the time and 33 69.0%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AJo leads on the flop, 33 comes back on the turn and river 10.7% of the time. When 33 leads on the flop, AJo turns it around 28.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.7% of the time from the flop and 86.4% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AJo leads 39.1% and 33 60.9%. Counted exhaustively, AJo finishes with 47.33% equity (the 47.3% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AJo wins | Tie | 33 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo ahead | 31.0% | 88.9% | 0.428% | 10.7% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 33 ahead | 69.0% | 28.3% | 0.577% | 71.2% |
| After the turn | How often | AJo wins | Tie | 33 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo ahead | 39.1% | 93.2% | 0.572% | 6.22% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 33 ahead | 60.9% | 17.4% | 0.504% | 82.1% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AJo | 33 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63.6% | 53.7% |
| 2 | 45.4% | 33.1% |
| 4 | 28.7% | 19.1% |
| 8 | 16.1% | 12.8% |
Related
FAQ
AJo or 33 — which is ahead preflop?
33 is the favourite. AJo takes 47.3% and 33 52.7%, a margin of 5.4 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AJo vs 33?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 47.0%, and with both suits shared it is 47.9% — a swing of up to 0.9 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AJo 38.7%, 33 34.1%, random 27.2%. AJo drops 8.6 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AJo vs 33?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 22.8% of the time (level spots left out). When AJo leads, 33 comes back 10.7%. When 33 leads, AJo comes back 28.3%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 28 distinct figures — Method