AJo vs 33

When AJo and 33 get all in before the flop, AJo wins 47.3% of the time and 33 takes 52.7%. Broken down, AJo wins outright 47.0%, chops 0.5% and loses 52.5% — a margin of -5.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 47.0% (for example As Jh against 3d 3c); with both suits shared it is 47.9% (As Jh against 3s 3h). That is a spread of 0.9 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJo 38.7%, 33 34.1%, random 27.2%. AJo gives up 8.6 points and 33 gives up 18.6, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AJo is worth 63.6% against a random hand (rank 15 of 169) and 33 is worth 53.7% (rank 67). The gap between them in the ranking is only 9.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 5.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJo scoops roughly 47 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJo would be down to 16.1% and 33 to 12.8%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 33's side, 52.7% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.9:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.7% of the pot you are playing for. AJo holds the other 47.3% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 33 really does hold exactly 33; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJo's 47.3% moves. Use the individual pages for AJo and 33 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.