AKo vs 44

When AKo and 44 get all in before the flop, AKo wins 46.0% of the time and 44 takes 54.0%. Broken down, AKo wins outright 45.7%, chops 0.5% and loses 53.8% — a margin of -8 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 45.6% (for example As Kh against 4d 4c); with both suits shared it is 46.3% (As Kh against 4s 4h). That is a spread of 0.68 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKo 39.4%, 44 36.1%, random 24.5%. AKo gives up 6.5 points and 44 gives up 17.9, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKo is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 12 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 8 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKo scoops roughly 46 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 54. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKo would be down to 19.1% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 44's side, 54.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.85:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 54.0% of the pot you are playing for. AKo holds the other 46.0% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKo's 46.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AKo and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.