AKo vs 22

When AKo and 22 get all in before the flop, AKo wins 47.3% of the time and 22 takes 52.7%. Broken down, AKo wins outright 47.0%, chops 0.6% and loses 52.4% — a margin of -5.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 46.9% (for example As Kh against 2d 2c); with both suits shared it is 47.8% (As Kh against 2s 2h). That is a spread of 0.88 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKo 40.0%, 22 31.8%, random 28.2%. AKo gives up 7.3 points and 22 gives up 20.9, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKo is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 12 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 15.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 5.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKo scoops roughly 47 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKo would be down to 19.1% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 22's side, 52.7% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.9:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.7% of the pot you are playing for. AKo holds the other 47.3% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKo's 47.3% moves. Use the individual pages for AKo and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.