AQs vs 22

When AQs and 22 get all in before the flop, AQs wins 50.1% of the time and 22 takes 49.9%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 49.8%, chops 0.6% and loses 49.5% — a margin of 0.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 49.9% (for example As Qs against 2s 2h); with no shared suit it is 50.4% (As Qs against 2h 2d). That is a spread of 0.54 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 42.2%, 22 30.5%, random 27.3%. AQs gives up 8 points and 22 gives up 19.3, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 16 points, yet head to head the gap is 0.3 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 50 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 22's side, 49.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 49.9% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 50.1% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 50.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.