KQs vs 44

When KQs and 44 get all in before the flop, KQs wins 50.1% of the time and 44 takes 49.9%. Broken down, KQs wins outright 49.8%, chops 0.7% and loses 49.5% — a margin of 0.2 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 49.9% (for example Ks Qs against 4s 4h); with no shared suit it is 50.3% (Ks Qs against 4h 4d). That is a spread of 0.42 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes KQs 42.2%, 44 33.7%, random 24.1%. KQs gives up 7.9 points and 44 gives up 16.2, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, KQs is worth 63.4% against a random hand (rank 16 of 169) and 44 is worth 57.0% (rank 48). The gap between them in the ranking is only 6.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 0.2 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, KQs scoops roughly 50 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 50. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, KQs would be down to 20.4% and 44 to 13.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 44's side, 49.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 49.9% of the pot you are playing for. KQs holds the other 50.1% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 44 really does hold exactly 44; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, KQs's 50.1% moves. Use the individual pages for KQs and 44 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, KQs is ahead 32.2% of the time and 44 67.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When KQs leads on the flop, 44 comes back on the turn and river 10.7% of the time. When 44 leads on the flop, KQs turns it around 31.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.9% of the time from the flop and 85.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, KQs leads 41.7% and 44 58.3%. Counted exhaustively, KQs finishes with 50.01% equity (the 50.1% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).