99 vs AJs
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- 99 Win
- 52.6%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- 99 Lose
- 47.0%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
Win, tie and loss for 99
When 99 and AJs get all in before the flop, 99 wins 52.8% of the time and AJs takes 47.2%. Broken down, 99 wins outright 52.6%, chops 0.4% and loses 47.0% — a margin of 5.5 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 52.5% (for example 9s 9h against Ad Jd); with one shared suit it is 53.0% (9s 9h against As Js). That is a spread of 0.46 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 99 41.9%, AJs 40.5%, random 17.7%. 99 gives up 10.9 points and AJs gives up 6.8, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 99 is worth 72.2% against a random hand (rank 6 of 169) and AJs is worth 65.4% (rank 11). The gap between them in the ranking is only 6.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 5.5 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 99 scoops roughly 53 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 47. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 99 would be down to 17.2% and AJs to 20.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJs's side, 47.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.12:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 47.2% of the pot you are playing for. 99 holds the other 52.8% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJs really does hold exactly AJs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 99's 52.8% moves. Use the individual pages for 99 and AJs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 99 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 9s 9h vs Ad Jd | 12 | 52.5% | 52.4% | 0.4% | 47.3% |
| One shared suit | 9s 9h vs As Js | 12 | 53.0% | 52.8% | 0.4% | 46.8% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, 99 is ahead 68.2% of the time and AJs 31.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When 99 leads on the flop, AJs comes back on the turn and river 27.9% of the time. When AJs leads on the flop, 99 turns it around 11.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.8% of the time from the flop and 87.0% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, 99 leads 59.7% and AJs 40.3%. Counted exhaustively, 99 finishes with 52.77% equity (the 52.8% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | 99 wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 68.2% | 71.7% | 0.423% | 27.9% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJs ahead | 31.8% | 11.7% | 0.350% | 87.9% |
| After the turn | How often | 99 wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 ahead | 59.7% | 83.3% | 0.425% | 16.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJs ahead | 40.3% | 7.11% | 0.363% | 92.5% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 99 | AJs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 65.4% |
| 2 | 53.8% | 48.0% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 32.2% |
| 8 | 17.2% | 20.1% |
Related
FAQ
99 or AJs — which is ahead preflop?
99 is the favourite. 99 takes 52.8% and AJs 47.2%, a margin of 5.5 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 99 vs AJs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 52.5%, and with one shared suit it is 53.0% — a swing of up to 0.46 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 99 41.9%, AJs 40.5%, random 17.7%. 99 drops 10.9 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in 99 vs AJs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 22.8% of the time (level spots left out). When 99 leads, AJs comes back 27.9%. When AJs leads, 99 comes back 11.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 29 distinct figures — Method