TT vs AQs

When TT and AQs get all in before the flop, TT wins 54.2% of the time and AQs takes 45.8%. Broken down, TT wins outright 54.0%, chops 0.4% and loses 45.6% — a margin of 8.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 54.0% (for example Ts Th against Ad Qd); with one shared suit it is 54.4% (Ts Th against As Qs). That is a spread of 0.37 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 44.0%, AQs 39.6%, random 16.4%. TT gives up 10.2 points and AQs gives up 6.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 8.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 8.4 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 54 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 46. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AQs's side, 45.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.18:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 45.8% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 54.2% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 54.2% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, TT is ahead 68.4% of the time and AQs 31.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When TT leads on the flop, AQs comes back on the turn and river 26.4% of the time. When AQs leads on the flop, TT turns it around 12.4% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.6% of the time from the flop and 87.3% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, TT leads 60.3% and AQs 39.7%. Counted exhaustively, TT finishes with 54.14% equity (the 54.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).