JJ vs AQs
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- JJ Win
- 54.0%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- JJ Lose
- 45.6%
- Card combinations
- 24
- JJ vs random
- 77.5% · #4
- AQs vs random
- 66.2% · #10
Win, tie and loss for JJ
When JJ and AQs get all in before the flop, JJ wins 54.2% of the time and AQs takes 45.8%. Broken down, JJ wins outright 54.0%, chops 0.4% and loses 45.6% — a margin of 8.3 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 54.1% (for example Js Jh against Ad Qd); with one shared suit it is 54.3% (Js Jh against As Qs). That is a spread of 0.19 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes JJ 45.1%, AQs 39.5%, random 15.4%. JJ gives up 9.1 points and AQs gives up 6.4, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, JJ is worth 77.5% against a random hand (rank 4 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 11.3 points, yet head to head the gap is 8.3 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, JJ scoops roughly 54 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 46. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, JJ would be down to 21.7% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQs's side, 45.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.18:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 45.8% of the pot you are playing for. JJ holds the other 54.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, JJ's 54.2% moves. Use the individual pages for JJ and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | JJ Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Js Jh vs Ad Qd | 12 | 54.1% | 53.9% | 0.3% | 45.8% |
| One shared suit | Js Jh vs As Qs | 12 | 54.3% | 54.0% | 0.5% | 45.5% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, JJ is ahead 68.4% of the time and AQs 31.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When JJ leads on the flop, AQs comes back on the turn and river 26.3% of the time. When AQs leads on the flop, JJ turns it around 12.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.7% of the time from the flop and 87.4% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, JJ leads 60.3% and AQs 39.7%. Counted exhaustively, JJ finishes with 54.12% equity (the 54.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | JJ wins | Tie | AQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ ahead | 68.4% | 73.2% | 0.489% | 26.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQs ahead | 31.6% | 12.3% | 0.256% | 87.5% |
| After the turn | How often | JJ wins | Tie | AQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ ahead | 60.3% | 84.3% | 0.504% | 15.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQs ahead | 39.7% | 7.65% | 0.281% | 92.1% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | JJ | AQs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77.5% | 66.2% |
| 2 | 61.4% | 49.7% |
| 4 | 40.2% | 34.0% |
| 8 | 21.7% | 21.1% |
Related
FAQ
JJ or AQs — which is ahead preflop?
JJ is the favourite. JJ takes 54.2% and AQs 45.8%, a margin of 8.3 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change JJ vs AQs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 54.1%, and with one shared suit it is 54.3% — a swing of up to 0.19 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is JJ 45.1%, AQs 39.5%, random 15.4%. JJ drops 9.1 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in JJ vs AQs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 21.9% of the time (level spots left out). When JJ leads, AQs comes back 26.3%. When AQs leads, JJ comes back 12.3%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
424 words / 28 distinct figures — Method