TT vs AJo
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- TT Win
- 56.8%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- TT Lose
- 42.8%
- Card combinations
- 72
- TT vs random
- 75.1% · #5
- AJo vs random
- 63.6% · #15
Win, tie and loss for TT
When TT and AJo get all in before the flop, TT wins 57.0% of the time and AJo takes 43.0%. Broken down, TT wins outright 56.8%, chops 0.4% and loses 42.8% — a margin of 14 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With both suits shared the number is 56.5% (for example Ts Th against As Jh); with no shared suit it is 57.5% (Ts Th against Ad Jc). That is a spread of 0.93 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 46.0%, AJo 36.0%, random 17.9%. TT gives up 10.9 points and AJo gives up 7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and AJo is worth 63.6% (rank 15). The gap between them in the ranking is only 11.5 points, yet head to head the gap is 14 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 57 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 43. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and AJo to 16.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJo's side, 43.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.33:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 43.0% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 57.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJo really does hold exactly AJo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 57.0% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and AJo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | TT Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Ts Th vs Ad Jc | 12 | 57.5% | 57.3% | 0.3% | 42.4% |
| One shared suit | Ts Th vs As Jd | 48 | 57.0% | 56.8% | 0.4% | 42.8% |
| Both suits shared | Ts Th vs As Jh | 12 | 56.5% | 56.3% | 0.5% | 43.3% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | TT | AJo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75.1% | 63.6% |
| 2 | 57.8% | 45.4% |
| 4 | 36.1% | 28.7% |
| 8 | 19.3% | 16.1% |
Related
FAQ
TT or AJo — which is ahead preflop?
TT is the favourite. TT takes 57.0% and AJo 43.0%, a margin of 14 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change TT vs AJo?
Yes. With both suits shared it is 56.5%, and with no shared suit it is 57.5% — a swing of up to 0.93 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is TT 46.0%, AJo 36.0%, random 17.9%. TT drops 10.9 points compared with heads-up.
431 words / 28 distinct figures — Method