99 vs 32o
Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
- 99 Win
- 85.2%
- Tie
- 0.8%
- 99 Lose
- 14.0%
- Card combinations
- 72
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
- 32o vs random
- 32.3% · #169
Win, tie and loss for 99
When 99 and 32o get all in before the flop, 99 wins 85.6% of the time and 32o takes 14.4%. Broken down, 99 wins outright 85.2%, chops 0.8% and loses 14.0% — a margin of 71.2 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 85.0% (for example 9s 9h against 3d 2c); with both suits shared it is 86.1% (9s 9h against 3s 2h). That is a spread of 1.14 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 99 61.9%, 32o 12.4%, random 25.7%. 99 gives up 23.7 points and 32o gives up 2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 99 is worth 72.2% against a random hand (rank 6 of 169) and 32o is worth 32.3% (rank 169). The gap between them in the ranking is only 39.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 71.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 99 scoops roughly 85 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 14. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 99 would be down to 17.2% and 32o to 6.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 32o's side, 14.4% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 5.94:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 14.4% of the pot you are playing for. 99 holds the other 85.6% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 32o really does hold exactly 32o; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 99's 85.6% moves. Use the individual pages for 99 and 32o to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 99 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 9s 9h vs 3d 2c | 12 | 85.0% | 84.6% | 0.7% | 14.7% |
| One shared suit | 9s 9h vs 3s 2d | 48 | 85.7% | 85.3% | 0.8% | 14.0% |
| Both suits shared | 9s 9h vs 3s 2h | 12 | 86.1% | 85.7% | 0.8% | 13.5% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 99 | 32o |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72.2% | 32.3% |
| 2 | 53.8% | 19.3% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 11.1% |
| 8 | 17.2% | 6.2% |
Related
FAQ
99 or 32o — which is ahead preflop?
99 is the favourite. 99 takes 85.6% and 32o 14.4%, a margin of 71.2 points, with 0.8% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 99 vs 32o?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 85.0%, and with both suits shared it is 86.1% — a swing of up to 1.14 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 99 61.9%, 32o 12.4%, random 25.7%. 99 drops 23.7 points compared with heads-up.
427 words / 33 distinct figures — Method