AA vs 32o
Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
- AA Win
- 86.9%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AA Lose
- 12.6%
- Card combinations
- 72
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- 32o vs random
- 32.3% · #169
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and 32o get all in before the flop, AA wins 87.2% of the time and 32o takes 12.8%. Broken down, AA wins outright 86.9%, chops 0.5% and loses 12.6% — a margin of 74.4 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 86.3% (for example As Ah against 3d 2c); with both suits shared it is 88.0% (As Ah against 3s 2h). That is a spread of 1.66 points across the 72 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 74.7%, 32o 10.8%, random 14.5%. AA gives up 12.5 points and 32o gives up 2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and 32o is worth 32.3% (rank 169). The gap between them in the ranking is only 52.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 74.4 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 87 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 13. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and 32o to 6.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 32o's side, 12.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 6.81:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 12.8% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 87.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 72 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 32o really does hold exactly 32o; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 87.2% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and 32o to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs 3d 2c | 12 | 86.3% | 86.1% | 0.5% | 13.4% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs 3s 2d | 48 | 87.2% | 86.9% | 0.5% | 12.5% |
| Both suits shared | As Ah vs 3s 2h | 12 | 88.0% | 87.7% | 0.5% | 11.8% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 95.9% of the time and 32o 4.14%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, 32o comes back on the turn and river 9.68% of the time. When 32o leads on the flop, AA turns it around 20.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 89.4% of the time from the flop and 92.9% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 91.8% and 32o 8.19%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 87.21% equity (the 87.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | 32o wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 95.9% | 89.8% | 0.508% | 9.68% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 32o ahead | 4.14% | 20.7% | 0.758% | 78.6% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | 32o wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 91.8% | 93.5% | 0.439% | 6.03% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 32o ahead | 8.19% | 13.3% | 1.41% | 85.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | 32o |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 32.3% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 19.3% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 11.1% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 6.2% |
Related
FAQ
AA or 32o — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 87.2% and 32o 12.8%, a margin of 74.4 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs 32o?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 86.3%, and with both suits shared it is 88.0% — a swing of up to 1.66 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 74.7%, 32o 10.8%, random 14.5%. AA drops 12.5 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs 32o?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 10.1% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, 32o comes back 9.68%. When 32o leads, AA comes back 20.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
427 words / 30 distinct figures — Method