AA vs AQs

When AA and AQs get all in before the flop, AA wins 87.4% of the time and AQs takes 12.6%. Broken down, AA wins outright 86.8%, chops 1.2% and loses 12.0% — a margin of 74.7 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 87.4% (for example As Ah against Ad Qd); with no shared suit it is 87.4% (As Ah against Ad Qd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 73.8%, AQs 12.1%, random 14.1%. AA gives up 13.5 points and AQs gives up 0.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 19 points, yet head to head the gap is 74.7 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 87 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 12. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AQs's side, 12.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 6.94:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 12.6% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 87.4% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 87.4% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.