AA vs AQs
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- AA Win
- 86.8%
- Tie
- 1.2%
- AA Lose
- 12.0%
- Card combinations
- 12
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- AQs vs random
- 66.2% · #10
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and AQs get all in before the flop, AA wins 87.4% of the time and AQs takes 12.6%. Broken down, AA wins outright 86.8%, chops 1.2% and loses 12.0% — a margin of 74.7 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 87.4% (for example As Ah against Ad Qd); with no shared suit it is 87.4% (As Ah against Ad Qd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 73.8%, AQs 12.1%, random 14.1%. AA gives up 13.5 points and AQs gives up 0.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 19 points, yet head to head the gap is 74.7 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 87 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 12. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQs's side, 12.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 6.94:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 12.6% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 87.4% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 87.4% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Qd | 12 | 87.4% | 86.8% | 1.2% | 12.0% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 97.9% of the time and AQs 2.09%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, AQs comes back on the turn and river 10.2% of the time. When AQs leads on the flop, AA turns it around 3.72% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 88.7% of the time from the flop and 92.7% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 93.7% and AQs 6.08%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 87.46% equity (the 87.4% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | AQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 97.9% | 88.6% | 1.22% | 10.2% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQs ahead | 2.09% | 3.72% | 2.31% | 94.0% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | AQs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 93.7% | 92.5% | 1.00% | 6.50% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.226% | 2.14% | 94.1% | 3.77% |
| AQs ahead | 6.08% | 2.74% | 1.53% | 95.7% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | AQs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 66.2% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 49.7% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 34.0% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 21.1% |
Related
FAQ
AA or AQs — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 87.4% and AQs 12.6%, a margin of 74.7 points, with 1.2% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs AQs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 87.4%, and with no shared suit it is 87.4% — a swing of up to 0 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 73.8%, AQs 12.1%, random 14.1%. AA drops 13.5 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs AQs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 10.0% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, AQs comes back 10.2%. When AQs leads, AA comes back 3.72%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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