AA vs AKs
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- AA Win
- 87.4%
- Tie
- 1.3%
- AA Lose
- 11.4%
- Card combinations
- 12
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and AKs get all in before the flop, AA wins 88.0% of the time and AKs takes 12.0%. Broken down, AA wins outright 87.4%, chops 1.3% and loses 11.4% — a margin of 76 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 88.0% (for example As Ah against Ad Kd); with no shared suit it is 88.0% (As Ah against Ad Kd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 74.0%, AKs 11.7%, random 14.3%. AA gives up 14 points and AKs gives up 0.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AKs is worth 67.2% (rank 8). The gap between them in the ranking is only 18 points, yet head to head the gap is 76 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 87 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 11. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AKs to 22.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AKs's side, 12.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 7.33:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 12.0% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 88.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AKs really does hold exactly AKs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 88.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AKs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Kd | 12 | 88.0% | 87.4% | 1.3% | 11.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 97.9% of the time and AKs 2.09%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, AKs comes back on the turn and river 9.75% of the time. When AKs leads on the flop, AA turns it around 3.71% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 89.1% of the time from the flop and 93.0% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 93.8% and AKs 5.96%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 87.86% equity (the 88.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | AKs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 97.9% | 89.0% | 1.23% | 9.75% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AKs ahead | 2.09% | 3.71% | 2.31% | 94.0% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | AKs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 93.8% | 92.8% | 1.02% | 6.18% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.226% | 2.14% | 94.1% | 3.77% |
| AKs ahead | 5.96% | 2.75% | 1.42% | 95.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | AKs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 67.2% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 50.3% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 35.4% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 22.4% |
Related
FAQ
AA or AKs — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 88.0% and AKs 12.0%, a margin of 76 points, with 1.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs AKs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 88.0%, and with no shared suit it is 88.0% — a swing of up to 0 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 74.0%, AKs 11.7%, random 14.3%. AA drops 14 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs AKs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 9.63% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, AKs comes back 9.75%. When AKs leads, AA comes back 3.71%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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