AA vs AKs
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- AA Win
- 87.4%
- Tie
- 1.3%
- AA Lose
- 11.4%
- Card combinations
- 12
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and AKs get all in before the flop, AA wins 88.0% of the time and AKs takes 12.0%. Broken down, AA wins outright 87.4%, chops 1.3% and loses 11.4% — a margin of 76 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 88.0% (for example As Ah against Ad Kd); with no shared suit it is 88.0% (As Ah against Ad Kd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 74.0%, AKs 11.7%, random 14.3%. AA gives up 14 points and AKs gives up 0.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AKs is worth 67.2% (rank 8). The gap between them in the ranking is only 18 points, yet head to head the gap is 76 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 87 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 11. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AKs to 22.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AKs's side, 12.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 7.33:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 12.0% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 88.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AKs really does hold exactly AKs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 88.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AKs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Kd | 12 | 88.0% | 87.4% | 1.3% | 11.4% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | AKs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 67.2% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 50.3% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 35.4% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 22.4% |
Related
FAQ
AA or AKs — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 88.0% and AKs 12.0%, a margin of 76 points, with 1.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs AKs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 88.0%, and with no shared suit it is 88.0% — a swing of up to 0 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 74.0%, AKs 11.7%, random 14.3%. AA drops 14 points compared with heads-up.
428 words / 27 distinct figures — Method