AA vs AJo
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- AA Win
- 91.6%
- Tie
- 1.3%
- AA Lose
- 7.1%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- AJo vs random
- 63.6% · #15
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and AJo get all in before the flop, AA wins 92.3% of the time and AJo takes 7.8%. Broken down, AA wins outright 91.6%, chops 1.3% and loses 7.1% — a margin of 84.5 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 91.8% (for example As Ah against Ad Jc); with one shared suit it is 92.5% (As Ah against Ad Js). That is a spread of 0.74 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 78.2%, AJo 7.1%, random 14.8%. AA gives up 14.1 points and AJo gives up 0.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AJo is worth 63.6% (rank 15). The gap between them in the ranking is only 21.6 points, yet head to head the gap is 84.5 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 92 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 7. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AJo to 16.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJo's side, 7.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 11.82:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 7.8% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 92.3% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJo really does hold exactly AJo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 92.3% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AJo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Jc | 12 | 91.8% | 91.2% | 1.2% | 7.7% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Js | 24 | 92.5% | 91.8% | 1.4% | 6.8% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 98.9% of the time and AJo 1.14%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, AJo comes back on the turn and river 6.09% of the time. When AJo leads on the flop, AA turns it around 4.94% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 92.6% of the time from the flop and 94.9% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 96.5% and AJo 3.30%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 92.30% equity (the 92.3% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | AJo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 98.9% | 92.7% | 1.25% | 6.09% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJo ahead | 1.14% | 4.94% | 4.35% | 90.7% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | AJo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 96.5% | 94.9% | 0.992% | 4.10% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.233% | 1.77% | 97.0% | 1.27% |
| AJo ahead | 3.30% | 2.96% | 3.18% | 93.9% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | AJo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 63.6% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 45.4% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 28.7% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 16.1% |
Related
FAQ
AA or AJo — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 92.3% and AJo 7.8%, a margin of 84.5 points, with 1.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs AJo?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 91.8%, and with one shared suit it is 92.5% — a swing of up to 0.74 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 78.2%, AJo 7.1%, random 14.8%. AA drops 14.1 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs AJo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 6.08% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, AJo comes back 6.09%. When AJo leads, AA comes back 4.94%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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