AA vs AKo
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- AA Win
- 92.5%
- Tie
- 1.3%
- AA Lose
- 6.2%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- AKo vs random
- 65.4% · #12
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and AKo get all in before the flop, AA wins 93.2% of the time and AKo takes 6.8%. Broken down, AA wins outright 92.5%, chops 1.3% and loses 6.2% — a margin of 86.3 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 92.7% (for example As Ah against Ad Kc); with one shared suit it is 93.4% (As Ah against Ad Ks). That is a spread of 0.76 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 78.4%, AKo 6.5%, random 15.0%. AA gives up 14.7 points and AKo gives up 0.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and AKo is worth 65.4% (rank 12). The gap between them in the ranking is only 19.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 86.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 93 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 6. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and AKo to 19.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AKo's side, 6.8% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 13.71:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 6.8% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 93.2% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AKo really does hold exactly AKo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 93.2% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and AKo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Kc | 12 | 92.7% | 92.0% | 1.3% | 6.7% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs Ad Ks | 24 | 93.4% | 92.8% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 98.9% of the time and AKo 1.14%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, AKo comes back on the turn and river 5.20% of the time. When AKo leads on the flop, AA turns it around 4.90% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 93.5% of the time from the flop and 95.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 96.7% and AKo 3.04%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 93.17% equity (the 93.2% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | AKo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 98.9% | 93.5% | 1.28% | 5.20% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AKo ahead | 1.14% | 4.90% | 4.35% | 90.7% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | AKo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 96.7% | 95.5% | 1.04% | 3.42% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.233% | 1.77% | 97.0% | 1.27% |
| AKo ahead | 3.04% | 3.03% | 2.89% | 94.1% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | AKo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 65.4% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 47.9% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 19.1% |
Related
FAQ
AA or AKo — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 93.2% and AKo 6.8%, a margin of 86.3 points, with 1.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs AKo?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 92.7%, and with one shared suit it is 93.4% — a swing of up to 0.76 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 78.4%, AKo 6.5%, random 15.0%. AA drops 14.7 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs AKo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 5.19% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, AKo comes back 5.20%. When AKo leads, AA comes back 4.90%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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