TT vs 99
Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
- TT Win
- 81.8%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- TT Lose
- 17.7%
- Card combinations
- 36
- TT vs random
- 75.1% · #5
- 99 vs random
- 72.2% · #6
Win, tie and loss for TT
When TT and 99 get all in before the flop, TT wins 82.0% of the time and 99 takes 18.0%. Broken down, TT wins outright 81.8%, chops 0.5% and loses 17.7% — a margin of 64 points. Pair over pair — the higher pair is roughly an 80/20 favourite.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 81.3% (for example Ts Th against 9d 9c); with both suits shared it is 82.7% (Ts Th against 9s 9h). That is a spread of 1.43 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes TT 61.5%, 99 16.8%, random 21.7%. TT gives up 20.5 points and 99 gives up 1.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, TT is worth 75.1% against a random hand (rank 5 of 169) and 99 is worth 72.2% (rank 6). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 64 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, TT scoops roughly 82 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, TT would be down to 19.3% and 99 to 17.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 99's side, 18.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.56:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 18.0% of the pot you are playing for. TT holds the other 82.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 99 really does hold exactly 99; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, TT's 82.0% moves. Use the individual pages for TT and 99 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | TT Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Ts Th vs 9d 9c | 6 | 81.3% | 81.1% | 0.4% | 18.5% |
| One shared suit | Ts Th vs 9s 9d | 24 | 82.0% | 81.8% | 0.5% | 17.7% |
| Both suits shared | Ts Th vs 9s 9h | 6 | 82.7% | 82.4% | 0.6% | 17.0% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, TT is ahead 88.8% of the time and 99 11.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When TT leads on the flop, 99 comes back on the turn and river 9.26% of the time. When 99 leads on the flop, TT turns it around 14.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 89.6% of the time from the flop and 93.4% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, TT leads 85.6% and 99 14.4%. Counted exhaustively, TT finishes with 82.00% equity (the 82.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | TT wins | Tie | 99 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 88.8% | 90.2% | 0.529% | 9.26% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 99 ahead | 11.2% | 14.7% | 0.286% | 85.0% |
| After the turn | How often | TT wins | Tie | 99 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT ahead | 85.6% | 93.9% | 0.545% | 5.55% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 99 ahead | 14.4% | 9.67% | 0.244% | 90.1% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | TT | 99 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75.1% | 72.2% |
| 2 | 57.8% | 53.8% |
| 4 | 36.1% | 32.5% |
| 8 | 19.3% | 17.2% |
Related
FAQ
TT or 99 — which is ahead preflop?
TT is the favourite. TT takes 82.0% and 99 18.0%, a margin of 64 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change TT vs 99?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 81.3%, and with both suits shared it is 82.7% — a swing of up to 1.43 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is TT 61.5%, 99 16.8%, random 21.7%. TT drops 20.5 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in TT vs 99?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 9.87% of the time (level spots left out). When TT leads, 99 comes back 9.26%. When 99 leads, TT comes back 14.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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