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QQ vs JTs

QQ
VS
JTs
81.7%
equity for QQ — JTs takes 18.3%

Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.

QQ Win
81.5%
Tie
0.4%
QQ Lose
18.1%
Card combinations
24
QQ vs random
79.9% · #3
JTs vs random
57.5% · #46
Breakdown

Win, tie and loss for QQ

Win 81.5%Lose 18.1%

When QQ and JTs get all in before the flop, QQ wins 81.7% of the time and JTs takes 18.3%. Broken down, QQ wins outright 81.5%, chops 0.4% and loses 18.1% — a margin of 63.3 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 81.1% (for example Qs Qh against Jd Td); with one shared suit it is 82.2% (Qs Qh against Js Ts). That is a spread of 1.07 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes QQ 65.0%, JTs 17.4%, random 17.7%. QQ gives up 16.7 points and JTs gives up 1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, QQ is worth 79.9% against a random hand (rank 3 of 169) and JTs is worth 57.5% (rank 46). The gap between them in the ranking is only 22.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 63.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, QQ scoops roughly 81 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, QQ would be down to 24.5% and JTs to 18.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From JTs's side, 18.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.46:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 18.3% of the pot you are playing for. QQ holds the other 81.7% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes JTs really does hold exactly JTs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, QQ's 81.7% moves. Use the individual pages for QQ and JTs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

By shared suits

Overlapping suits move the number

200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.

ConditionExampleCombosQQ EquityWinTieLose
No shared suitQs Qh vs Jd Td1281.1%81.0%0.4%18.7%
One shared suitQs Qh vs Js Ts1282.2%82.0%0.4%17.6%
Three-way

Adding a random third hand

200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.

QQ
65.0%
vs heads-up -16.7pt
JTs
17.4%
vs heads-up -1.0pt
Random third hand
17.7%
Player count

At a bigger table

Random opponentsQQJTs
179.9%57.5%
265.0%41.9%
444.9%28.5%
824.5%18.1%

Related

FAQ

QQ or JTs — which is ahead preflop?

QQ is the favourite. QQ takes 81.7% and JTs 18.3%, a margin of 63.3 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.

Do the suits change QQ vs JTs?

Yes. With no shared suit it is 81.1%, and with one shared suit it is 82.2% — a swing of up to 1.07 points.

What happens three-way?

With one extra random hand in the pot the split is QQ 65.0%, JTs 17.4%, random 17.7%. QQ drops 16.7 points compared with heads-up.

427 words / 28 distinct figures — Method