QQ vs JTs
Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
- QQ Win
- 81.5%
- Tie
- 0.4%
- QQ Lose
- 18.1%
- Card combinations
- 24
- QQ vs random
- 79.9% · #3
- JTs vs random
- 57.5% · #46
Win, tie and loss for QQ
When QQ and JTs get all in before the flop, QQ wins 81.7% of the time and JTs takes 18.3%. Broken down, QQ wins outright 81.5%, chops 0.4% and loses 18.1% — a margin of 63.3 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 81.1% (for example Qs Qh against Jd Td); with one shared suit it is 82.2% (Qs Qh against Js Ts). That is a spread of 1.07 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes QQ 65.0%, JTs 17.4%, random 17.7%. QQ gives up 16.7 points and JTs gives up 1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, QQ is worth 79.9% against a random hand (rank 3 of 169) and JTs is worth 57.5% (rank 46). The gap between them in the ranking is only 22.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 63.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, QQ scoops roughly 81 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 18. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, QQ would be down to 24.5% and JTs to 18.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From JTs's side, 18.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 4.46:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 18.3% of the pot you are playing for. QQ holds the other 81.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes JTs really does hold exactly JTs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, QQ's 81.7% moves. Use the individual pages for QQ and JTs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | QQ Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Qs Qh vs Jd Td | 12 | 81.1% | 81.0% | 0.4% | 18.7% |
| One shared suit | Qs Qh vs Js Ts | 12 | 82.2% | 82.0% | 0.4% | 17.6% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | JTs | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79.9% | 57.5% |
| 2 | 65.0% | 41.9% |
| 4 | 44.9% | 28.5% |
| 8 | 24.5% | 18.1% |
Related
FAQ
QQ or JTs — which is ahead preflop?
QQ is the favourite. QQ takes 81.7% and JTs 18.3%, a margin of 63.3 points, with 0.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change QQ vs JTs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 81.1%, and with one shared suit it is 82.2% — a swing of up to 1.07 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is QQ 65.0%, JTs 17.4%, random 17.7%. QQ drops 16.7 points compared with heads-up.
427 words / 28 distinct figures — Method
