88 vs 54s
Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
- 88 Win
- 78.3%
- Tie
- 1.0%
- 88 Lose
- 20.8%
- Card combinations
- 24
- 88 vs random
- 69.2% · #7
- 54s vs random
- 41.4% · #138
Win, tie and loss for 88
When 88 and 54s get all in before the flop, 88 wins 78.7% of the time and 54s takes 21.3%. Broken down, 88 wins outright 78.3%, chops 1.0% and loses 20.8% — a margin of 57.5 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 78.2% (for example 8s 8h against 5d 4d); with one shared suit it is 79.3% (8s 8h against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 1.16 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes 88 54.4%, 54s 19.2%, random 26.3%. 88 gives up 24.3 points and 54s gives up 2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, 88 is worth 69.2% against a random hand (rank 7 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 27.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 57.5 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, 88 scoops roughly 78 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 21. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, 88 would be down to 15.9% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 54s's side, 21.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.69:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 21.3% of the pot you are playing for. 88 holds the other 78.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, 88's 78.7% moves. Use the individual pages for 88 and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | 88 Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | 8s 8h vs 5d 4d | 12 | 78.2% | 77.7% | 0.9% | 21.4% |
| One shared suit | 8s 8h vs 5s 4s | 12 | 79.3% | 78.8% | 1.0% | 20.2% |
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | 88 | 54s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69.2% | 41.4% |
| 2 | 50.2% | 28.9% |
| 4 | 29.2% | 19.0% |
| 8 | 15.9% | 12.6% |
Related
FAQ
88 or 54s — which is ahead preflop?
88 is the favourite. 88 takes 78.7% and 54s 21.3%, a margin of 57.5 points, with 1.0% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change 88 vs 54s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 78.2%, and with one shared suit it is 79.3% — a swing of up to 1.16 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is 88 54.4%, 54s 19.2%, random 26.3%. 88 drops 24.3 points compared with heads-up.
427 words / 35 distinct figures — Method