AA vs 54s

When AA and 54s get all in before the flop, AA wins 78.9% of the time and 54s takes 21.1%. Broken down, AA wins outright 78.7%, chops 0.5% and loses 20.9% — a margin of 57.9 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 78.3% (for example As Ah against 5d 4d); with one shared suit it is 79.5% (As Ah against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 1.16 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 68.1%, 54s 19.0%, random 13.0%. AA gives up 10.9 points and 54s gives up 2.1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 43.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 57.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 79 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 21. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 54s's side, 21.1% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.74:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 21.1% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 78.9% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 78.9% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 94.3% of the time and 54s 5.68%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AA leads on the flop, 54s comes back on the turn and river 17.3% of the time. When 54s leads on the flop, AA turns it around 18.4% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 82.2% of the time from the flop and 88.5% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AA leads 87.1% and 54s 12.9%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 78.91% equity (the 78.9% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).