AA vs 98s
Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
- AA Win
- 77.9%
- Tie
- 0.3%
- AA Lose
- 21.7%
- Card combinations
- 24
- AA vs random
- 85.2% · #1
- 98s vs random
- 50.8% · #83
Win, tie and loss for AA
When AA and 98s get all in before the flop, AA wins 78.1% of the time and 98s takes 21.9%. Broken down, AA wins outright 77.9%, chops 0.3% and loses 21.7% — a margin of 56.2 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 77.4% (for example As Ah against 9d 8d); with one shared suit it is 78.8% (As Ah against 9s 8s). That is a spread of 1.34 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 68.0%, 98s 20.0%, random 12.0%. AA gives up 10.1 points and 98s gives up 1.9, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and 98s is worth 50.8% (rank 83). The gap between them in the ranking is only 34.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 56.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 78 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 22. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and 98s to 14.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 98s's side, 21.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.57:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 21.9% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 78.1% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 98s really does hold exactly 98s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 78.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and 98s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AA Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ah vs 9d 8d | 12 | 77.4% | 77.3% | 0.3% | 22.4% |
| One shared suit | As Ah vs 9s 8s | 12 | 78.8% | 78.6% | 0.4% | 21.0% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AA is ahead 94.1% of the time and 98s 5.87%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AA leads on the flop, 98s comes back on the turn and river 18.1% of the time. When 98s leads on the flop, AA turns it around 16.9% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 81.6% of the time from the flop and 88.3% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AA leads 86.6% and 98s 13.4%. Counted exhaustively, AA finishes with 77.94% equity (the 78.1% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AA wins | Tie | 98s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 94.1% | 81.6% | 0.306% | 18.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 98s ahead | 5.87% | 16.9% | 1.01% | 82.1% |
| After the turn | How often | AA wins | Tie | 98s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA ahead | 86.6% | 88.2% | 0.233% | 11.5% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 98s ahead | 13.4% | 10.5% | 1.08% | 88.4% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AA | 98s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85.2% | 50.8% |
| 2 | 73.5% | 36.2% |
| 4 | 55.9% | 23.6% |
| 8 | 34.5% | 14.4% |
Related
FAQ
AA or 98s — which is ahead preflop?
AA is the favourite. AA takes 78.1% and 98s 21.9%, a margin of 56.2 points, with 0.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AA vs 98s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 77.4%, and with one shared suit it is 78.8% — a swing of up to 1.34 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AA 68.0%, 98s 20.0%, random 12.0%. AA drops 10.1 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AA vs 98s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 18.1% of the time (level spots left out). When AA leads, 98s comes back 18.1%. When 98s leads, AA comes back 16.9%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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