AA vs JTs

When AA and JTs get all in before the flop, AA wins 78.8% of the time and JTs takes 21.2%. Broken down, AA wins outright 78.6%, chops 0.4% and loses 21.0% — a margin of 57.6 points. Overpair against two undercards — about 80/20 for the pair.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 78.2% (for example As Ah against Jd Td); with one shared suit it is 79.5% (As Ah against Js Ts). That is a spread of 1.31 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AA 68.2%, JTs 19.6%, random 12.1%. AA gives up 10.6 points and JTs gives up 1.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AA is worth 85.2% against a random hand (rank 1 of 169) and JTs is worth 57.5% (rank 46). The gap between them in the ranking is only 27.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 57.6 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AA scoops roughly 79 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 21. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AA would be down to 34.5% and JTs to 18.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From JTs's side, 21.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.72:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 21.2% of the pot you are playing for. AA holds the other 78.8% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes JTs really does hold exactly JTs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AA's 78.8% moves. Use the individual pages for AA and JTs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.