AQs vs 66

When AQs and 66 get all in before the flop, AQs wins 48.0% of the time and 66 takes 52.0%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 47.8%, chops 0.4% and loses 51.8% — a margin of -4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 47.8% (for example As Qs against 6s 6h); with no shared suit it is 48.2% (As Qs against 6h 6d). That is a spread of 0.34 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 41.3%, 66 38.0%, random 20.7%. AQs gives up 6.7 points and 66 gives up 14, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and 66 is worth 63.3% (rank 17). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 4 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 48 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 52. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and 66 to 13.7%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 66's side, 52.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.92:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 52.0% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 48.0% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 66 really does hold exactly 66; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 48.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and 66 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AQs is ahead 31.8% of the time and 66 68.2%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AQs leads on the flop, 66 comes back on the turn and river 11.0% of the time. When 66 leads on the flop, AQs turns it around 28.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.5% of the time from the flop and 86.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AQs leads 40.6% and 66 59.4%. Counted exhaustively, AQs finishes with 48.02% equity (the 48.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).